Civil Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
3.
The probability that the project will finish before day 30
. This probability
is the same as the probability of finishing by the end of day 29.
Z
=(
29
−
32
)∕
2
.
972
=−
1
.
01
0, take the probability that corresponds to the positive
value of
Z
and then subtract it from 1.0 (100%):
When
Z
<
Pr
(
T
s
≤
29
)=
1
−
0
.
844
=
0
.
156
=
15
.
6
%
SeeFigure11.4.
Figure 11.4 Solution to example 11.1, part 3
4.
The probability that the project will finish on day 32
.
Pr
(
T
s
=
32
)=
Pr
(
T
s
≤
32
)−
Pr
(
T
s
≤
31
)
We already calculated Pr
(
T
s
≤
32
)=
0
.
5
=
50
%
(part 1). For
Pr
(
T
s
≤
31
)
,
Z
=(
31
−
32
)∕
2
.
972
=−
0
.
34
Pr
(
T
s
≤
31
)=
1
−
0
.
633
=
0
.
367
=
36
.
7
%
and
Pr
(
T
s
=
32
)=
Pr
(
T
s
≤
32
)−
Pr
(
T
s
≤
31
)=
50
%−
36
.
7
%=
13
.
3
%
SeeFigure11.5.
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