A new perspective on changing Arctic marine ecosystems: panarchy adaptive cycles in pan-Arctic spatial and temporal scales - Ocean Sustainability in the 21st Century - page 181

5.4 Panarchy theory applied to observational strategies
It is critical to recognize and accept that 'surprise and unexpected events' are the incon-
venient reality of non-linear (complex-adaptive) systems and that this constrains the abil-
ity of models to predict future outcomes with ongoing validation through observation and
modelling. Put simply, one cannot manage what one does not measure. For this reason, it is
suggested that a cross-scale monitoring strategy, founded in panarchy theory, can provide a
means - perhaps the only means - of detecting the early signs of environmental shifts affect-
ing marine system services and functions, and to provide an informed basis for responsive
policy. Consider the following, scale-based activities:
1. Since the late 1980s the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,
2014 ) has taken the global lead in assessing and predicting the impacts of an-
thropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on global climate. The IPCC focus is
large scale and multidecadal . Solid monitoring of all parts of the climate sys-
tem and biota is essential to IPCC's ongoing effectiveness.
2. Large-scale oceanographic monitoring programmes follow in the spirit of the
IPCC mandate by taking a global scale view of ocean physics, geochemistry,
and biology to establish benchmarks against which future ( long time-scale )
change can be detected (cf. Carmack and McLaughlin, 2001 , 2011 ) .
3. But, many - if not most - public policy concerns are centred on climate change
issues with regional (not global) spatial scales, short (not long) time-scales,
and intimate (not bulk) metrics of place and change (Visbeck, 2008 ) .
4. So, deep understanding of the local, the immediate, and the intimate lies with the
people who remain connected with the land and marine environment for food,
travel, and survival; that is to say, the residents of coastal communities (cf.
Krupnik and Jolly, 2002 ; Carmack and Macdonald, 2008 ; Huntington, 2011 ;
Fienup-Riordan and Carmack, 2011 ).