Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Forecast skill for long-range outlooks is mixed. For
all measures skill in temperature is higher than for
precipitation. Precipitation forecasts generally show
little skill unless there is a strong El Niño or La Niña.
Temperature outlooks show the highest skill in late
winter and late summer.
FURTHER READING
Books
Bader, M. J. et al . (1995) Images in Weather Forecasting ,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 499pp.
[Extensive collection of imagery illustrating all types of
synoptic phenomena.]
Barry, R. G. and Carleton, A. M. (2001) Synoptic and
Dynamic Climatology , Routledge, London, 620pp.
Browning, K. A. (ed.) (1983) Nowcasting , Academic Press,
New York, 256pp. [Treats the design of forecast
systems, new remote sensing tools, and simple and
numerical forecasts.]
Conway, E. D. and the Maryland Space grant Consortium
(1997) Introduction to Satellite Imagery Interpretation ,
Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD,
242pp. [Useful, well-illustrated introduction to basics of
remote sensing, satellite systems and atmospheric
applications - clouds, winds, jet streams, synoptic
and mesoscale systems, air quality; oceanographic
applications including sea ice.]
Henderson-Sellers, A. (ed.) (1995) Future Climates of the
World: A Modelling Perspective , Elsevier, Amsterdam,
636pp. [Provides geological perspective of past climate,
observed climate variability and future projections,
anthropogenic effects.]
McGuffie, K. and Henderson-Sellers, A. (1997) A Climate
Modelling Primer (2nd edn), John Wiley & Sons,
Chichester, 268pp. [Explains the basis and mechanisms
of climate models; includes CD with additional
resources.]
Monmonier, M. (1999) Air Apparent. How Meteorologists
Learned to Map, Predict and Dramatize the Weather ,
University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 309pp. [A
readable history of the development of the weather map
and forecasting, including the tools and technologies
on which they are based.]
Trenberth, K. E. (ed.) (1992) Climate System Modeling ,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 788pp.
[Essays by specialists covering all aspects of modelling
the climate system and its components - oceans, sea
ice, biosphere, gas exchanges.]
Washington, W. M. and Parkinson, C. L. (1986) An
Introduction to Three-dimensional Climate Modeling ,
University Science Books, Mill Valley, CA, 422pp.
[Comprehensive account of the basis of atmospheric
general circulation models.]
SUMMARY
Various types of numerical model are used to study the
mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation, climate
processes and weather forecasting. These include
vertical column models of radiative and convective
processes, one- and two-dimensional energy balance
models and complete three-dimensional general
circulation models (GCMs) which can be coupled with
ocean and sea-ice models or with regional climate
models. While initially developed for weather fore-
casting such models are now used widely to study
climatic anomalies and past and future changes of global
climate. These uses require coupling of atmospheric
and oceanic GCMs and the representation of ice and
land surface processes.
Forecasts are issued for different timescales and the
techniques involved differ considerably. Immediate
'nowcasts' rely heavily on current radar and satellite
data. Short- and intermediate-range forecasts are now
derived from numerical models with some statistical
guidance while long-range forecasts use numerical
models in an almost completely probabilistic manner.
DISCUSSION TOPICS
What types of experiment can be performed with
a global climate model that cannot be observed in
nature?
What are some of the problems encountered in
evaluating the results of GCM experiments?
Consider the different concepts and methodologies
used in forecasting weather on timescales of a few
hours, the next day, and the next week.
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