Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Forecast skill for long-range outlooks is mixed.
For all measures skill in temperature is higher
than for precipitation. Precipitation forecasts
generally show little skill unless there is a strong
El Niño or La Niña. Temperature outlooks show
the largest skill in late winter and late summer.
Various types of numerical model are used to study the mechanisms of the atmospheric circulation,
climate processes and weather forecasting. These include vertical column models of radiative and
convective processes, one- and two-dimensional energy balance models and complete three-
dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) which can be coupled with ocean and sea ice
models or with regional climate models. While initially developed for weather forecasting such
models are now widely used to study climatic anomalies and past and future changes in global
climate. These uses require coupling of atmospheric and oceanic GCMs and the representation of
ice and land surface processes.
Forecasts are issued for different timescales and the techniques involved differ considerably.
Immediate 'nowcasts' rely heavily on current radar and satellite data. Short- and intermediate-range
forecasts are now derived from numerical models with some statistical guidance while long-range
forecasts use numerical models in an almost completely probabilistic manner.
•
What types of experiment can be performed with a global climate model that cannot be observed
in nature?
•
What are some of the problems encountered in evaluating the results of GCM experiments?
•
Consider the different concepts and methodologies used in forecasting weather on time scales
of a few hours, the next day and the next week.
REFERENCES AND FURTHER
READING
620pp. [Advanced text covering climate data
and analysis, the general circulation, global and
regional climates, teleconnections, synoptic
systems, and synoptic climatology]
Browning, K. A. (ed.) (1983) Nowcasting, Academic
Press, New York, 256pp. [Treats the design of
forecast systems, new remote sensing tools,
and simple and numerical forecasts]
Conway, E. D. and the Maryland Space Grant
Consortium (1997) Introduction to Satellite
Imagery Interpretation, Johns Hopkins Univer-
sity Press, Baltimore, MD, 242pp [Useful,
Books
Bader, M. J. et al. (1995) Images in Weather
Forecasting, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, 499pp. [Extensive collection of
imagery illustrating all types of synoptive
phenomena]
Barry, R. G. and Carleton, A. M. (2001) Synoptic and
Dynamic Climatology, Routledge, London,
