Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Lesson:
Recognize that your model does not predict the future; it only proj-
ects what might happen if the system doesn't change (which is unlikely).
Before you use the estimates of persistence from any population viability
analysis, compare the approach used to obtain the estimate with the necessary
components discussed here. If you discover omissions and errors in the ap-
proach used to obtain the estimate, recognize the worth (or lack thereof ) of the
estimate of persistence. Although the estimates of persistence obtained from a
PVA may have little value, the process of formulating a model and identifying
missing information (i.e., parameters that are poorly estimated) may still have
value in developing measures to conserve the species in question.
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