From Vulnerability to Adaptation to Climate Change: Food for Thoughts in Social Sciences - Vulnerability of Coastal Ecosystems and Adaptation - page 240

instability, widening gaps between social groups, etc. Conversely, the
conditions prior to the hazard can confer to the system a relative
solidity/stability which enables it to be better prepared for the crisis.
These surface characteristics (as opposed to deeper causes, see
below) are situated directly at the interface of the event, the
confrontation explains the triggering of a disaster and its scale. If
domino effects play a role and if the extent of the disaster in time goes
beyond the simple confrontation between the system and the event, it
is because other forms of logic underlie the surface characteristics.
These forms of logic relate to the second dimension of the PAR
model, i.e. that of dynamic pressures in Blaikie, Cannon, Davis and
Wisner's words. We are no longer talking about a static state at this
stage, but about changes. Taking into account environmental, socio-
cultural, politico-institutional and economic dynamics requires that
surface characteristics be seen as the result of multiple changes. This
implies that the degree of vulnerability which characterizes the system
under study is dynamic and was built over time, so any attempt at
reducing it (by improving the management of crises or by anticipating
them) requires groundwork on the system itself and not just adjusting
the surface. As an example, it is the relationship to coastal
environments which needs to be thought over again rather than simply
fighting against erosion or marine flooding. So these elements appear
as parts of a more complex puzzle. Here the occurrence of a disaster is
rooted deeper than the simple interface between a system and the
hazard and goes beyond the near past (which accounts for the current
characteristics of the system) to go back in time until a further past.
We go from decades to centuries. The topic of climate change invites
us to look at timescales that extend further than what we are
comfortable with, as it requires changes in lifestyles and development
paradigms. In this sense, it is a real scientific opportunity to test and
partially reinvent the development trajectories of our societies.
The third dimension which appears in the PAR Model is rooted
even further in time and relates to root causes . The timescale, of one
to several centuries, refers to the fundamental values on which
societies are built: the hierarchy, distribution of power, relation to
natural resources, belief systems, economic orientations, etc. These