Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation of Coastal Zones to Global Change - Vulnerability of Coastal Ecosystems and Adaptation - page 147

In regards to the future, there are two main methods for making
GMSL projections. Models used are based either on the modeling of
geophysical processes in the various systems (upper layers of the
ocean, glaciers, ice sheets and storing of land water resources), or
semi-empirical models. The latter project the future behavior of
GMSL by using statistical relationships between observations on past
behavior, and the mean global temperature of the atmosphere at the
surface [GRI 10, RAH 07] or the radiative forcing [JEV 10].
The models based on geophysical processes project for the period
of 2081-2100, compared to 1986-2005, an average increase in GMSL
between 0.26 and 0.55 m for scenario RCP2.6, between 0.32 and
0.63 m for RCP4.5, between 0.33 and 0.63 m for RCP6.0 and between
0.45 and 0.82 m for RCP8.5 [IPC 13]. Figure 4.6 shows the evolution
of the GMSL rise projected by the four RCP scenarios.
Figure 4.6. Projections for the rise in GMSL up to the end of the century, resulting
from different RCP scenarios [IPC 13]. The margins in blue and red correspond to
the uncertainties of the extreme scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 (see color section)
For the RCP8.5 scenario, which corresponds to the larger volumes
of global emissions of greenhouse gas, the models project a GMSL
rise in 2100 between 0.45 and 0.98 m and a mean annual rate of
GMSL rise, for the period 2081-2100, of 8-16 mm, which is more