Geoscience Reference
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anthropogenic climate change and acting on the same parameters, the
winds, oceanic currents, temperature and salinity.
When considering the impacts of the mean sea level rise on a
specific location on the coast, it is necessary to know the rate of
change of the local mean sea level and the rate of change of the
vertical movements of the land at the same location. Figure 4.4 shows,
for example, that in Stockholm the mean sea level is decreasing,
whereas in Manila it has been rising for 40 years at a faster rate than
the rate of rise in GMSL. In conclusion the rate of variation in LMSL
is strongly dependent on the region under consideration. However, it
is very likely that by the end of the century, about 95% of the ocean's
surface will show an increase in its mean level. The ocean regions
where a decrease is not likely will be those close to glaciers, polar ice
caps and ice sheets [IPC 13].
Year
Year
Year
Year
Year
Year
Figure 4.4. Rates of change of mean sea level in relation to the center of the Earth for
the period 1993-2012. The figure also shows the variations (in grey) of the LMSL in
six coastal towns, detected by tide gauges, for the period 1950-2012. The lines in red
represent an estimate of the variation in GMSL in the same period (adapted from
[IPC 13]) (see color section)
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