Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation of Coastal Zones to Global Change - Vulnerability of Coastal Ecosystems and Adaptation - page 136

probability over time, it can be estimated that the global sea level rise
and the sinking of the seashore in some regions, will lead, by 2050, to
annual losses of 60 to 63 billion dollars. Asia is the continent where
the greatest number of people and the highest value of infrastructures
and coastal assets are exposed to the flood risk. In the future, as a
result of demographic growth and socio-economic development, the
highest risks for coastal zones lie in Asia and Africa [HAN 11].
The socio-economic and climate scenarios indicate that in 2070,
the countries most vulnerable to the risk of flooding will be: China,
India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the United States, Japan, Thailand,
Myanmar, Egypt and Nigeria [HAN 11]. The majority of these
countries are developing countries.
Among the most populous coastal cities where the potential losses
due to floods will be the highest in 2050, can be found: Guangzhou,
Mumbai, Kolkata, Guayaquil, Shenzhen, Miami, Tianjin, New York-
Newark, Ho Chi Minh City and New Orleans [HAL 13]. The future
situation is particularly worrying in the developing countries that
combine a strong demographic growth and a weak capacity to adapt.
In these countries, the ecosystems that protect the coast, such as
wetlands, mangroves and dunes, are destroyed or their functioning is
seriously affected by urbanization and development. It should also be
noted that the migration of populations toward the coast is higher in
the regions vulnerable to tropical cyclones and to the risk of flooding.
It is important to recognize too, that these populations' current
capacity for adaptation can improve rapidly with socio-economic
development. The people who live in the shanty towns situated in the
low elevation coastal zones, above all in the big cities of South and
South-East Asia, are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme
meteorological events and to rising sea levels.
4.3. The impact of climate change on coastal zones
4.3.1. Socio-economic and climate scenarios
The preceding arguments show that there are strong connections
and relationships of direct and indirect cause and effect between the