Microbiological Coastal Risks and Monitoring Systems - Vulnerability of Coastal Ecosystems and Adaptation - page 117

existing products; they are then validated by measurements of the
terrain in situ , the advice of experts and potential users; the conception
of an operational production chain can then be envisaged.
3.4.2.3. Step 3: elaboration of predictive models
This third step calls upon biomathematic modeling of epidemic
dynamics (risk quantification), integrating the transport processes
involved: pathogenic agents, vectors and hosts, physical and socio-
ecological environments. This step notably involves the development
of health information systems. The final objective is to put early
warning systems in place (SAP), enabling epidemics to be predicted,
either by creating such systems, or by integrating the biomathematical
models developed in the existing systems.
The CNES currently applies this concept to several infectious
diseases widespread in the world:
- Rift Valley fever in Senegal [GIC 13];
- rural and urban malaria on the African continent [MAC 11];
- dengue fever in Argentina and the Caribbean;
- vibrio (Vibriose) diseases around the Mediterranean basin;
- bilharzias in China.
3.4.3. Application of remote monitoring to vibrios
3.4.3.1. The case of Chesapeake Bay, United States
A system for predicting the probability of the presence of
V. cholerae in Chesapeake Bay, United States, and also other
pathogenic species of the same genus, such as V. vulnificus , has been
developed [BAN 12, CON 09]. This system identifies and maps the
geographical zones of the Bay where the environmental conditions are
those of the bacterium's habitat. It was developed by using empirical
models of the habitat in Chesapeake Bay for pathogenic species of the
genus vibrio [JAC 10, LOU 03], and based on projections for the
surface temperature of the water and salinity based on a model of the
regional oceanic system (ROMS) configured for the Bay (ChesROMS).