Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
8
The Legacy of History
So far, my analysis has focused on specific examples in which the interplay
between economic geography and political representation has influenced the
design of fiscal structures. Through these cases I have identified the conse-
quences of the interaction between mobility and economic geography in two
systems of representation where regions had veto power over change (Canada,
the United States). Symmetrically, I have illustrated the importance of the rep-
resentative structures. Representation mediates the consequences of exogenous
changes in the geography of inequality (Reunification vs. Great Depression),
and shapes the political dynamics in unions where distributive conflicts emerge
endogenously (EU vs. Spain).
I selected these cases with the aim of identifying viable scenarios approximat-
ing the requirements of a “counterfactual.” In some instances, natural exper-
iments such as the Great Depression or Germany's Reunification, provided
relatively straightforward examples. Others, such as the EU or Spain, were less
so. Throughout, the quest for counterfactual conditions remains somewhat
quixotic and one needs to dig deeper to identify some exogenous determinants
of either economic geography or the structure of political representation.
These challenges aside, the analyses in the previous chapters have provided
adequate evidence on the causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between
economic geography, political representation, and fiscal structures. The results
are generally consistent with the central contentions of this topic.
Yet the ability to draw inferences about non-observable cases on the basis
of these historical examples is limited. There will always be uncertainty about
the extent the conclusions can be applied to other realities, as it is impossible to
fully meet the counterfactual conditions for inference. To reduce these doubts,
this chapter aims to assess econometrically the topic's core ideas, to evaluate
whether the findings that emerge from the analysis of specific unions can be
applied to other cases.
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