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at?”. I have recoded the answer to be either 1 (yes) or 0 (no) and limited the
sample to left-wing political organizations, that is, parties that proclaim to
have a social democratic platform (or more radical redistributive proposals)
and labor unions. Given the nature of the dependent variable, and the fact
that all variables are measured at the country level, I report results based on a
standard logit model.
18
To capture the impact of the geography of inequality I
include the same interaction between the spread of the distribution of income
(Gini coefficient) and the level of income per capita (GDP pc) that I used to
model citizens' preferences. I also keep as control variables the same country
level determinants: the budgetary effort in active labor market policies, the
unemployment rate, and the net EU budgetary balance of the countries in
which each of these organizations operate. As before, I include the full set of
statistical results in Appendix B (see Table B.2).
Figure 4.8
reports the predicted
probability that left leaning social and political organizations in Europe offer
their support to the notion that a single European social model ought to be
pursued. The x axis displays different levels of inequality, whereas the different
series, ranging from 51 to 143, capture each country's distance to the average
level of GDP per capita (EU
100).
There is a considerable amount of variation in the position adopted by these
organizations, variation that appears systematically associated with Europe's
geography of inequality. The analysis presents a divided European left. Con-
sistent with the position of dependents identified above, organizations that
operate in relatively wealthier and egalitarian contexts show virtually no sup-
port for a hypothetical common European social policy. Much like one of their
key constituencies, they do not want to share their tax base with potential ben-
eficiaries of redistribution elsewhere. They see in Europe a source of potential
dismantlement of their very generous and comprehensive welfare systems. In
contrast, the left parties of poor and egalitarian European countries see social
policy integration as an attractive source of resources, one that might help them
sustain their social security systems.
Figure 4.8
brings up one other additional pattern: there seems to be an
inequality threshold beyond which the political positions of European left
leaning organizations switch. The critical point is situated around a Gini coef-
ficient of about .33. Given relatively higher levels of income inequality, leftist
organizations in rich countries tend to support a common European social pol-
icy model, while the same type of political organizations in relatively poorer
nations appear highly skeptical of its benefits. The left of relatively poor and
unequal countries, such as Poland, seems to perceive Europe as a constraint to
the development of social redistributive platforms, whereas the left in relatively
rich and unequal countries, such as Spain, sees the pursuit of a European social
dimension as a feasible alternative to tackle social issues (such as immigration
and its implications) that have long transcended nation-state boundaries. Obvi-
ously, the reasons behind these policy positions are complex and respond to
=
18
Nevertheless, as a robustness check, I also include a set of probit results in Appendix B.
