Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
scenarios are used to simulate adverse health implications, with respect to trends,
timing, intensity, regional vulnerability and specific population groups at risk
(Casimiro et al.
2006
). Regional climate change impact models such as PROMES,
developed at the Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Gallardo et al.
2001
) and
HadRM2, developed at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom (Jones et al.
1997
), have been used to simulate potential future air pollution levels (e.g. nitrogen
dioxide and tropospheric ozone), as well as vector borne diseases and transmission
risk assessments. Health models integrated with hydrologic and agricultural models
also allow the simulation of climate change impacts, relating drought and agriculture
to public health (Ebi
2007
).
11.9 Conclusion and Recommendations
The exact impacts of climate change on public health are not completely known;
however based on recorded mortality and morbidity from injuries and diseases,
according to some model projections, millions of people will be at increased future
risk (McMichael et al.
2004
). While regional climate change models may contribute
to understanding potential health risk factors at regional scales, such models offer
only limited benefit for localized analysis. There is the need for more research
with localized (small scale) models to optimize climate change impact predic-
tions for localized areas, so as to enable enhanced mitigation measures. Advances
in remote sensing technologies are likely to improve monitoring of climatic con-
ditions, epidemiological modeling and the understanding of the quantitative and
qualitative impacts of climate change on public health, as well as on biogenic
and anthropogenic disaster mitigation; however greater disaggregation of data col-
lection and dissemination, particularly by multi-lateral agencies, is imperative in
order to capture the site-specific nuances required for climate change mitigation
and adaptation.
The prudent intergenerational management of natural resources and ecosystem
services that are prerequisite to achieving environmental sustainability, partic-
ularly in countries with substantially impoverished populations, will certainly
require more than technological advances in satellite remote sensing, geopositioning
constellations, enhanced spatial data infrastructure, telecommunications and high
performance computing (Rochon et al.
2004
). (Ahmed et al.
2009
) in an August 20,
2009 article in
Environmental Research Letters
presented their findings, based on a
review of thirteen countries, indicating that one impact of volatile climate changes
in developing countries is an increase vulnerability to poverty. The poor are likewise
more vulnerable to malnutrition, infection and natural disasters. Consequently, best
management practices (BMPs) that focus exclusively upon technological advance
or technology transfer from bi-lateral or multi-lateral donors without provision of
adequate safeguards for the wellbeing and ultimate prosperity of the lowest socio-
economic strata are unlikely to be efficacious (Herbreteau et al.
2007
; Rochon et al.
2010
; Rochon
2009
). Poverty eradication is a fundamental and ineluctable objective
