Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Conclusion
With non-Western powers rising fast and a range of new threats emerging, the
international system is in
ux. In this process of change there are elements of both
rivalry and cooperation, of both zero- and positive-sum dynamics. No single the-
oretical interpretation of the reshaped world order has yet gained a fully convincing
ascendancy. Many factors in
uence the balance between these realist and liberal
dynamics. The question of relevance here is whether the climate security agenda
will tip the balance one way or the other in any decisive fashion. As this chapter
has demonstrated, there are well-grounded arguments on both sides of the debate.
The implication is that these competing analytical frameworks need to be tested
rigorously against actual climate security policies. So far,
insu
cient empirical,
contemporary evidence has been collected to reach any
rm judgement one way
or the other. Where international relations theories have been deployed in relation
to climate issues it has mostly been in explanation of negotiating dynamics leading
up to set-piece multilateral agreements.
Chapter two unpacked the di
erent policy challenges associated with climate
security. It broke down the general set of climate change predictions into a series of
concrete policy dilemmas. This chapter adds further analytical orientation by
comparing the contrasting predictions of how such dilemmas will be addressed.
For each policy dilemma, the
'
rivalry
'
and
'
competition
'
framework would expect
di
erent policy outcomes. This is not to suggest that EU policy is likely to follow
one or the other of these approaches exclusively; the challenge is to determine
what
combination
of these rather schematic realist and liberal dynamics are adopted
by di
s
sui generis
system of security governance. The
contrasting outcomes can be summarised as follows.
erent actors within the EU
'
The Rivalry Framework
Policy challenge
:
To prepare for climate-related military missions and con
ict
prevention.
Expected outcome
: EU prioritises additional investment in defensive military cap-
ability to repel spill-over e
ict.
Policy challenge
: More structured diplomacy and incentives focused on climate-
related global dynamics.
Expected outcome
: Increased tension with strategic partners over climate security
di
ects of climate con
ort to make concessions in the name
of cooperative security frameworks.
Policy challenge
: Economic and development policies broadened to temper
resource scarcity.
erences and less EU e
