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rst is that there will be a strong pull towards
isolationism and self-reliance. The second is that there will be a pull in the opposite
direction, towards positive-sum international cooperation. Will climate security
accord more to a scenario of
Two trends are possible. The
? International relations could
go either way; climate change raises the stakes in both directions. These are not
mutually exclusive absolutes. In practice there will inevitably be a balance in gov-
ernments
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rivalry
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or
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cooperation
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mix of responses, moving along a continuum from coordinated inter-
national action, to defensive adaptation, to aggressive competition. 39 The pertinent
question is where on this continuum the EU positions itself, with which combi-
nation of cooperative and realist dynamics.
One side of the argument is that climate security will require precisely the kinds
of international cooperation, rule and holistic concept of security that have dis-
tinguished the EU
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s self-identity in foreign policy. John Ashton and Tom Burke
argued early on that all issues related to climate change must be treated as an
integral part of foreign policy and that,
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The notion of a Common Foreign and
Security Policy makes no sense unless it includes a clear strategy on climate as a
foreign and security policy issue.
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If it did respond to the challenge, they predicted
that the EU should have a comparative advantage in this policy domain due to its
wide array of policy instruments dovetailing closely with the multi-faceted nature
of the climate security agenda. 40
Climate security is perhaps the ultimate international public good, and the issue
with most potential to be a
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not just a threat multiplier.
Some academics argue that the cooperative approach is likely to gain further pro-
minence to overcome problems of collective action and the free-riding of states
currently outside the main Western-oriented forums. 41 David Held sees climate
change as the vanguard issue in a nascent cosmopolitanism. 42
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cooperation multiplier
'
uential futurolo-
gist James Martin sees cooperative institutional structures as the key to preparing for
future uncertainty: as we cannot be certain of the future e
In
ects of climate change,
policy needs to focus on setting up the rules and protocols for managing whatever
impacts do emerge. 43
Climate change is often said to be the best example of a domestic
-
international
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cross-over issue, and thus not subject to the
statist logic of traditional
realism. Climate insecurity will place an even higher dividend on supporting eco-
nomic development, as it is this that will ultimately help poorer states defend
themselves. This in turn will reduce the scale of environmental migration. Dealing
with climate change requires more of a focus on good governance standards in all
countries. It should encourage rich countries to invest more in helping poor and
medium-sized states to undertake robust climate adaptation. And as countries are
no longer able to grow certain types of crops, food security will hinge around
more free trade, not illusory quests for self-su
black box
ciency. Nobel economics laureate
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