Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Some writers predict a whole series of tense, new cleavages arising from climate-
related redistribution: coastal versus inland cities; north versus south; rich versus poor;
and developed versus under-developed countries
-
these overlain by deeper class
ict as the rich use their means to protect themselves.
35
The Earth Security
Initiative fears that richer nations will buy up land and resort to even more agricultural
protectionism, and that this will magnify the risk of local con
con
ict and undermine local
rights.
36
International inequalities will deepen. A contradiction will take root: the
e
ects of climate change will push governments to want to protect themselves; as the
best protection is wealth, they will pursue higher gross domestic product (GDP)
growth rates and thus consume more. States will desire stronger buildings, more air
conditioning and more expensive storm protection.
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They will intensify the very
features of the economic system from which they require protection.
The Center for American Progress has concluded that climate factors were one
of the
that contributed to the post-2011 wave of revolts.
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The late Tony
Judt argued that climate change would be part and parcel of a general demise of
liberalism:
'
stressors
'
Men and women will be thrown back upon the resources of the state. They
will look to their political leaders and representatives to protect them: open
societies will once again be urged to close in upon themselves, sacri
cing
freedom for
'
security
'
.
Climate change will play a central role in the revival of the nation-state and
national politics, against the dominance of market interdependence, he predicted.
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States
adaptability to climate change will condition relative degrees of power.
Constance Lever-Tracy points out that climate change is likely to
'
throw into
disarray prior hierarchies and certainties, promoting new interests and alliances
'
.
States that do not adapt well will fade. Those that successfully develop the various
techniques of geo-engineering
'
-
such as sulphuric acid spray, arti
cial clouds,
sunshades and carbon sequestering through arti
stand to gain power.
Conversely, oil states will become weaker as the move to low carbon progresses.
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At the end of 2012 a World Bank report warned that climate change
cial trees
-
'
s geo-
economic impact was being under-estimated, as it was
set to extend beyond
generating localised con
ict and undo the crucial
linkages upon which global
economic development depend.
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In some senses, a swathe of northern states, from Canada through Scandinavia
into Russia, could be big gainers from global warming. Not only will they be
amongst the few places to bene
t from increased rainfall and water supplies, longer
growing seasons and negligible population stresses, they also stand to gain from
access to new hydrocarbons and trade routes as the Arctic ice retreats. This does
