Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
produce the lake level changes as independently reconstructed, given the present
state of knowledge of the watershed and the lake? Given the impossibility of cal-
ibrating multidecadal- and century-scale variability, such reconciliations offer a
way of checking the magnitudes of these changes.
6. Reaching beyond the present paradigm, in which tree rings are seen as imperfect
thermometers or rain gauges, to one in which fields of proxy data (for example,
annual maps of maximum latewood density, ring width, or an isotopic ratio) are
used 'as is' to constrain models of climate, or to enhance sparse instrumental
approach has the potential to provide resolution to some problems of nonsta-
tionary response, and of changing environment, as well as acknowledging the
potential for nonlinear responses.
In his 2002 review, Hughes concluded: '[T]he overall assessment [of the role
of dendrochronology in climatology] is that it is vibrant, with much robust debate
and innovative work.' The chapters in this topic represent a cross section of the
exciting dendroclimatology work being carried out throughout the world. It also
points to some of the key areas for future inquiry. As was the case with
Tree Rings,
as much as it takes a look back at some of the notable accomplishments of our
discipline. B. Luckman pointed out in his contribution to the
1996
volume, that
dendrochronology had a great opportunity to make significant contributions within
global change research. The record of the past 15 years bears that prediction out.
The expansion of research and the development of practical applications using tree
rings as proxies of past climatic variability is pointing to exciting new developments
for dendroclimatology—which likely will continue to grow. As human pressures on
the environment and the emerging signals of global climate change begin to impact
societies more heavily, there is a need for a greater understanding of the historic
nature and range of climatic variability on regional scales. Dendrochronology will
continue to be one of the best tools available for providing a comparative context
for future changes in climate.
References
Acuña Soto R, Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK, Therrell MD (2002) Megadrought and megadeath in
16th century Mexico. Emerg Infect Dis 8:360-362
Allan RJ (2000) ENSO and climatic variability in the past 150 years. In: Diaz HF, Markgraf V (eds)
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: multiscale variability and global and regional impacts.
Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 3-55
Andreev SG, Vaganov EA, Naurzbaev MM, Tulokhonov AK (1999) Registration of long-term
variations in the atmospheric precipitation, River Selenga runoff, and Lake Baikal level by
annual pine tree rings. Dokl Earth Sci 368:1008-1011
Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Hidalgo HG, Bonfils C, Santer BD, Das T, Bala G, Wood AW, Nozawa T,
Mirin AA, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD (2008) Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the
western United States. Science 319:1080-1083
