Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
6.2 Application of Time Series Analysis in Climatology
6.2.1 Precipitation/Precipitation with Other Climatic Data
Bhuiya (1971) tested the assumption of stationarity of standardized hydrologic
series after subtraction of the periodic and trend components. Based on the
Fourier series representation of the periodic process, a test for stationarity was
developed. The first order periodicity was explained by the periodicity of the
first moment of the hydrologic variable, whereas the periodicity in the
covariance was explained by the harmonization of the stochastic component.
Finally, observed monthly runoff and precipitation records were tested for
stationarity using their raw and transformed series.
Buishand (1979) used monthly rainfall data from urbanized and rural
areas in the western part of The Netherlands to investigate the effects of
urbanization on the rainfall regime. A trend test in the sequence of differences
between urban and rural rainfall amounts is described. For the urban areas of
Amsterdam and Rotterdam, some evidence was found for an increase in
precipitation.
Buishand (1982) discussed the features of five tests on the cumulative
deviations from the mean, which are often used for the analysis of homogeneity.
Some of the tests showed optimal properties in testing the null hypothesis of
homogeneity against a shift in the mean at an unknown point. These tests
together with the classical von Neumann ratio were applied to the 30-year
annual rainfall records of The Netherlands. For a large number of records,
strong indications for a change in the mean were found. There were only
small differences between the various test-statistics with respect to the number
of records for which the null hypothesis was rejected.
Buishand (1984) presented methodology for testing the shift in the mean
of hydrological time series with great attention to the likelihood ratio and
Bayesian tests, and critical values were also derived for the Bayesian tests.
Furthermore, testing for a systematic change in a linear regression model was
also presented. The proposed methodology was demonstrated using the runoff
and precipitation data of the Colorado River Basin, USA, and the Thames
River at Teddington, U.K., respectively.
Boroneant et al. (1995) examined the time series of seasonal and annual
precipitation totals for selected representative stations in the southern part of
Romania. The common period was 1951-1993. The homogeneity was tested
by the Alexandersson's test. In order to detect the trend and the change points
in the series, the linear test, Mann-Kendall's and Pettitt's tests were used.
Common change points were identified for different stations.
Brázdil and Stepánek (1995) examined the continuous air temperature
and precipitation measurements in Brno during 1848-1993 in different parts
of the city and then homogenized on the present station, Brno-Turany by
Maronna-Yohai and Alexandersson tests with the reference stations of Vienna,
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