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problems, as well as the associated 2.5 to 3 million
annual premature deaths and tens of millions of ill-
nesses worldwide. It was based on converting the cur-
rent fossil fuel and biofuel combustion-based energy
infrastructure to one based on clean and safe electricity,
on hydrogen derived from electricity, and on energy
efficiency. All energy worldwide for electric power,
transportation, and heating/cooling would be converted.
The ultimate sources of electric power would be WWS
technologies.
The scenario included the proposed deployment of
3.8 million 5-MW wind turbines (supplying 50 per-
cent of global end-use power demand in 2030); 49,000
300-MW CSP power plants (supplying 20 percent of
demand); 40,000 solar PV power plants (14 percent);
1.7 3-kW rooftop PV systems (6 percent); 5,350 100-
MW geothermal power plants (4 percent); 900 1,300-
MW hydroelectric power plants (4 percent), of which
70 percent are already in place; 720,000 0.75-MW
wave devices (1 percent); and 490,000 1-MW tidal tur-
bines (1 percent). In addition, the scenario assumed
an expansion of the transmission infrastructure to
accommodate the new power systems of BEVs and
HFCVs, ships that run on hydrogen fuel cell and bat-
tery combinations, liquefied hydrogen aircraft, air- and
ground-source heat pumps, electric resistance heat-
ing, and hydrogen production for high-temperature
processes.
The equivalent footprint area on the ground for the
sum of WWS devices needed to power the world would
be
2.
Combine WWS resources as one commodity and
use a nonvariable energy source, such as hydro-
electric power, to fill in gaps between demand and
supply.
3.
Use demand-response management to shift times of
peak demand to better match times of WWS supply.
4.
Store electric power at the site of generation for later
use.
5.
Oversize WWS peak generation capacity to mini-
mize the times when available WWS power is less
than demand and to provide spare power to produce
hydrogen for transportation and heat uses.
6.
Store electric power in electric vehicle batteries.
7.
Forecast the weather to plan for energy supply needs
better.
Today, the cost of generating electricity from onshore
wind power, geothermal power, and hydroelectric
power is less than or equal to that of new conventional
fossil fuel generation. By 2030, the cost of generat-
ing electricity from remaining WWS power sources,
including solar PVs, CSP, wave, and tidal power, is
likely to be less than that of conventional fuels when
the cost to society is accounted for. This result does
not change when the additional cost of a transmission
supergrid (about 1 U.S. cent kWh
−
1
)isincluded. Also,
in 2030, the total cost of electric transportation, based
either on batteries or hydrogen fuel cells, is likely to be
comparable with or less than the direct plus externality
cost of transportation based on liquid fossil fuels.
In sum, a concerted international effort can lead to
a conversion of the energy infrastructure so that by
c. 2030, the world will no longer build new fossil
fuel or nuclear electricity generation power plants or
new transportation equipment using internal combus-
tion engines. Rather, it will manufacture new wind tur-
bines, solar power plants, and electric and fuel cell vehi-
cles (except for aviation, which will use liquid hydrogen
in jet engines). Once this WWS power plant and electric
vehicle manufacturing and distribution infrastructure is
in place, the remaining existing fossil fuel and nuclear
power plants and internal combustion engine vehicles
can be gradually retired and replaced with WWS-based
systems, so that by 2050, the world is powered by WWS.
The main barriers to a conversion to a world-
wide WWS infrastructure are not technical, resource
based, or economic. Instead, they are political and
social. Because most polluting energy technologies and
resources currently receive government subsidies or
tax breaks or are not required to eliminate their emis-
sions, they can run inexpensively for a long time while
0.74 percent of global land area. The spacing area -
used for agriculture, ranching, and open space - would
be
∼
∼
1.16 percent of global land area. However, if one-
half of the wind devices were placed over water, and
considering that wave and tidal devices are in water,
70 percent of hydroelectric is already developed, and
rooftops for solar PV already exist, the additional foot-
print and spacing of devices on land required compared
with energy today would be only
∼
0.41 and
∼
0.59
percent of world land area, respectively.
The development of WWS power systems is not
likely to be constrained by the availability of bulk mate-
rials such as steel and concrete. In a global WWS sys-
tem, some materials, such as Nd (in electric motors and
generators), lithium (in batteries), and Pt (in fuel cells),
although not limited, may need to be recycled.
Several methods exist of matching electric power
demand with WWS supply continuously:
1.
Interconnect geographically dispersed naturally
variable energy sources (e.g., wind, wave, solar).
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