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Figure 2.11. Summary of estimates from LGM
)
pre-industrial period transitions. C&L refers
to Chylek and Lohmann (2008). H&S refers to Hansen and Sato (2011). K refers to Kohler et
al. (2009). Modified values are produced herein as described in the text.
that estimated by C&L and Shakun and Carlson (2010): 4.5
C, the implied climate
sensitivity would be
¼
4.5/12.43
¼
0.36
C/(W/m
2
). This in turn would suggest a
D
T
G
1.3
C for doubling CO
2
. However, Kohler et al. somehow arrived at a
figure of 2.4
C by arguments that are dicult for this writer to comprehend. In
summary, we have the results shown in
F
igure 2.11
.
All of the estimates for the
D
T
G
for doubling CO
2
are lower than the consensus value of 3.0
C based on
climate models, except for the unmodified result of Hansen and Sato (2011). None
of the estimates exceeds the consensus value.
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