Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
cycle 24 was characterized by a long period of very low sunspot count, suggesting
that the cosmic ray mechanism may produce some cooling if sunspot cycle 24 has
a relatively low sunspot count. Climate models do not take this into account.
11.2 WAYS OF IMPROVING OUR UNDERSTANDING
11.2.1 The need to depoliticize climate change
The topic of ice ages is associated with the allied topic of climate change which is
currently dominated by interest in global warming and its putative relationship to
increased CO
2
in the atmosphere due to industrialization and land use. While
looking backward to better understand historical climate variations such as ice
ages is of academic interest, looking forward to predict future climate change as a
function of future carbon emissions by human activity is of great economic and
political interest.
Humanity has become addicted to fossil fuels and, with growing world
population and the industrialization of many developing countries, the demand
for fossil fuels will continue to increase in the 21st century in the business-as-usual
scenario. This, in turn, will produce continually increasing carbon emissions and
rising atmospheric CO
2
concentrations. As oil production tops out, there will
likely be more dependence on coal, which produces more CO
2
than hydrocarbons
per unit energy generated. The majority of climatologists are convinced that rising
CO
2
concentrations in the atmosphere are primarily responsible for global
warming over the past
100 years, and many of them believe that continuation of
the business-as-usual policy for generating energy in the 21st century will produce
catastrophic global warming with severe economic and environmental conse-
quences. These climatologists have a controlling influence on environmental issues
in professional societies, research laboratories, advisory bodies (such as national
academies), government departments and agencies (including NASA, NOAA,
EPA, NSF, etc.), universities, and the U. N. As a result, government agencies at
state, federal, and international levels are actively planning legislation to cut back
severely on carbon emissions in the remainder of the 21st century. In October
2007, Chairman Dingell's Energy and Commerce Committee of the U. S. Congress
proposed: ''The United States should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by
between 60 and 80 percent by
ad
2050.''
21
President Obama proposed an 80%
reduction in emissions.
22
As part of his plan, he would increase the use of coal
and use a cap-and-trade system for emissions. The cap-and-trade system would
allow those who can afford it to continue to emit. Thus, the percentage reduction
for those not buying the right to emit would be even higher than 80%. Obama
plans the use of ''clean coal''. But, coal pollutes in the mines, in the runoff from
the mines, in the desecration left behind, in the railroads that transport the coal, in
22
Los Angeles Times, November 19, 2008.
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