Future prospects - Ice Ages and Interglacials: Measurements, Interpretation, and Models - page 319

islands, etc.) the same forces that produced previous ice ages would likely be
prevalent and, sooner or later, a new ice age would develop. Based on Figure
10.1 , it would seem likely that a new ice age could begin almost any time within
the next several thousand years in this scenario.
An alternative school of thought, held by a number of climatologists, is that
the natural order of ice age cycles will be interrupted in the future due to global
warming from increased CO 2 concentrations via the greenhouse effect, and pro-
jected further increases in CO 2 concentration during the 21st century will either
delay or entirely prevent the next ice age. Dr. James Hansen has been quoted as
saying:
''Another ice age cannot occur unless humans become extinct. Even then,
it would require thousands of years. Humans now control global climate, for
better or worse.''
A number of blogs have predicted, on the contrary, that global warming will
induce the next ice age.
11.1.2 Orthodoxy in climatology
Before discussing the prospects of a new ice age occurring in the future, it is
worthwhile to first discuss the degree to which objective neutral analysis is avail-
able in climatology and the degree to which institutionalized orthodoxy has taken
hold of the field and produced biased perceptions. This is important at the outset
because it suggests a degree of caution and skepticism is needed in interpreting the
climatological literature.
Lindzen (2008) wrote an excellent article on this topic, and the topic by Rapp
(2008) is also relevant. Lindzen perceives that over the past four decades or so the
fear of enemies or calamities has become the primary driving force for funding
scientific research. The key to retain funding is then to perpetuate problems that
require solving. Just as earthquake specialists repeatedly warn us that ''the big one
is coming,'' climatologists continually preach that the world faces a disaster due to
global warming. Lindzen suggested that this might be a major factor in the lack of
progress in many areas of science.
Lindzen (2008) described the politicalization of climate science:
''All such organizations, whether professional societies, research lab-
oratories, advisory bodies (such as the national academies), government
departments and agencies (including NASA, NOAA, EPA, NSF, etc.), and
even universities are hierarchical structures where positions and policies are
determined by small executive councils or even single individuals. This greatly
facilitates any conscious effort to politicize science via influence in such bodies
where a handful of individuals (often not even scientists) speak on behalf of
organizations that include thousands of scientists, and even enforce specific
scientific positions and agendas. The temptation to politicize science is over-