Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
Case fatality
ratio
Projected number of deaths*
U.S. population, 2006
≥2.0%
Category 5
≥1,800,000
1.0 - <2.0%
Category 4
900,000 - <1,800,000
Category 3
0.5 - <1.0%
450,000 - <900,000
Category 2
Category 1
0.1% - <0.5%
90,000 - <450,000
<0.1%
<90,000
*Assumes 30% illness rate
and unmitigated pandemic
without interventions
Figure 17.4 Pandemic severity index. (From U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services, “Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation,”
February 2007.)
of the virus. Going forward, these delays must be eliminated so that our pandemic
preparedness plans can be implemented when they can have the greatest impact.
Psychosocial Concerns of Pandemics
As stated earlier, the effects of a pandemic go well beyond health concerns. The
cyclical nature of pandemics, as well as the rapid transmission of the diseases, gen-
erates fear. The “worried well” further overwhelm an already besieged health care
infrastructure. Individuals whose family members or friends have been sickened
or have died suffer from mental health issues that could disable even the strongest
among us. Other practical issues result; in 1918, during the Spanish Flu pandemic,
Philadelphia suffered such losses of adult citizens that the Bureau of Child Hygiene
determined that it was unable to care for the large number of orphans.
14
Even
worse, the city was unable to cope with the numbers of dead. If a pandemic of simi-
lar virulence were to occur today, there could be “1.7 million deaths in the United
States and 180 million to 360 million deaths globally,”
15
clearly overloading the
health care system, as well as the funereal communities, and taking these essential
services beyond the breaking point.
One does not need to look to horrific pandemic data to sense the fragility
of a community's health care infrastructure. In 2006, a two-week heat wave in
