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Fig. 23.9 Horizontal location relative to the 24-h forecast cyclone position of the maximum
variance reduction of the response function for temperature observations for cyclones approaching
the coastal zone from the ( a ) northwest, ( b )west,( c ) southwest, and ( d ) south
positive forecast benefits is unlikely. This is especially true since these locations are
relative to the forecast position of the cyclone, and less clustering would be evident
when considering the actual positions of the maximum variance reduction values
within the modeling domain. Very similar results are found regarding the horizontal
location of targeting sites for pressure and wind observations (not shown).
Figure 23.10 depicts the average maximum variance reduction for all observation
types segregated by whether the cyclone was deepening or decaying over the 24-h
forecast period. The error bars represent the 95 % confidence interval. For each
observation type, deepening cyclones are associated with larger variance reduction
values on average, implying that observation targeting is more effective for deepen-
ing cyclones. This result is not reproduced when considering cyclone track, as the
average variance reduction values in Fig. 23.11 are essentially indistinguishable at
the 95 % confidence level among different cyclone tracks. These results demonstrate
how targeting impacts can relate to certain characteristics of the high impact event
in question (in this case the deepening rate of land-falling cyclones).
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