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and the nudged dynamics ( 2.7 ) takes the form
x.k C 1/ D Mx.k/ C
z
.k/ Hx.k/
(2.36)
We can rewrite ( 2.36 )as
x.k C 1/ D Ax.k/ C G
z
.k/
(2.37)
A D .M GH/
Iterating ( 2.37 ), it follows that the solution is given by
k X
A j GH M k 1 j x.0/
x.k/ D A k x.0/ C
j D 0
k X
A j GV.k 1 j/
(2.38)
j D 0
where we have used the fact that the true state
x.k/
dynamics is given by
x.k C 1/ D M x.k/
(2.39)
with
x.0/
as the initial condition and
k
x.k/ D M
x.0/
(2.40)
Hence substituting ( 2.35 )and( 2.39 )in
e.k/ D z
.k/ x.k/
and simplifying we readily obtain a decomposition into deterministic and stochastic
parts as follows:
e.k/ D F.k/x.0/ A k x.0/ C .k/
(2.41)
where
2
3
k X
k
k 1 j
4 HM
5
A j GHM
F.k/ D
(2.42)
j D 0
and
k X
A j GV.k 1 j/
.k/ D V.k/
j D 0
D V.k/ GV.k 1/ C AGV.k 2/ C A 2 GV.k 3/ C :::A k 2 GV.1/
(2.43)
 
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