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Original
Shifted
Original- shifted
3km COAMPS 10m U (m/s)
2003081200 tou 10
3km Time− shift COAMPS U (m/s) 2003081200 tou 10 Ensb
#
2
3km COAMPS 10m U obs Diff (m/s)
2003081200 tou 10 Ensb
#
2
37.2N
37N
36.8N
36.6N
36.4N
36.2N
123W
122.8W 122.6W 122.4W 122.2W
122W
121.8W 3W
122.8W 122.6W 122.4W 122.2W
122W
121.8W
122.8W 122.6W 122.4W 122.2W
122W
121.8W
3km COAMPS 10m V (m/s)
2003081200 tou 10
3km Time− shift COAMPS V (m/s) 2003081200 tou 10 Ensb
#
2
3km COAMPS 10m V obs Diff (m/s) 2003081200 tou 10 Ensb
#
2
37.2N
37N
36.8N
36.6N
36.4N
36.2N
123W
122.8W 122.6W 122.4W 122.2W
122W
121.8W 23W
122.8W 122.6W 122.4W 122.2W
122W
121.8W
122.8W 122.6W 122.4W 122.2W
122W
121.8W
Fig. 16.2
Original (
first column
), shifted (
second column
) and difference between original and
shifted u-component (
upper panel
) and v-component of surface 10-m wind speed from COAMPS
forecast for AOSN II domain (Monterey Bay)
randomly shifted field is used to compute the surface wind stress and heat fluxes for
each ensemble member. The NCOM-predicted SST is interactively feedback to the
surface latent and sensible heat fluxes using the drag coefficient from the standard
bulk formulas of
Kondo
(
1975
)(
Martin and Hodur 2003
;
Hong et al. 2007
,
2009b
).
The surface salt flux for NCOM is calculated from the computed latent heat flux and
the COAMPS precipitation.
Figure
16.2
shows u- and v- components of surface 10-m wind from a single
COAMPS deterministic forecast, a time shifted field and the difference between
the original and shifted fields. The high-resolution COAMPS atmospheric forecast
presents a strong northwesterly, which is favorable for the ocean coastal upwelling
for the Monterey Bay during the AOSN II field campaign (
Doyle et al. 2008
).
The northwesterly lasts from 7 to 19 August and induces an upwelling period.
The perturbed atmospheric forcing fields for a particular ensemble member and
forecast lead time present smooth features over the entire domain. The northwesterly
wind is preserved in the perturbed fields so that the upwelling will be induced in
each ocean ensemble forecast with the inclusion of atmospheric forcing uncertainty.
The difference between the original and shifted fields displays various locations
of maximum perturbation, which explains the feature of random distribution from
space and time shifting.
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