Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
k
l
E u rope:700hPa rel.humidity - Anomaly correlation
E u rope: 200hPa vector wind - Anomaly correlation
0.12
0.15
0.10
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.05
0.04
0
0.02
0
-
0.05
-
0.02
-
0.10
-
0.04
-
0.06
-
0.15
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Forecast Day
012345678910
11
Forecast Day
m
n
Tr o pics:700hPa temperature - Anomaly correlation
T r opics:700hPa rel.humidity - Anomaly correlation
0.14
0.16
0.12
0.14
0.10
0.12
0.08
0.10
0.06
0.08
0.04
0.06
0.02
0.04
0
0.02
-
0.02
0
-
0.04
-
0.02
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
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Forecast Day
Forecast Day
o
T r opics:200hPa vector wind - Anomaly correlation
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0
-
0.05
0123456789 0 1
Forecast Day
Fig. 11.10 Relative impact from the inclusion of the linearized physical parametrization schemes
in ECMWF's 4D-Var system. Forecast scores against operational analysis are shown in terms
of anomaly correlations for ranges up to 10 days. Score change is normalized by the control
and positive values correspond to an improvement. Grey bars indicate significance at the 95 %
confidence level. Results are shown for: 500 hPa geopotential, 700 hPa temperature, 700 hPa
relative humidity, 200 hPa vector wind and for the different regions: ( a )-( d ) Northern extratropics,
( e )-( h ) Southern extratropics, ( i )-( l ) Europe and ( m )-( o ) tropics. Statistics are valid for the period
of July-September 2011
11.7
Conclusions and Prospects
Past experimentation and operational implementation in ECMWF's Integrated
Forecasting System have clearly demonstrated the benefits of including linearized
physical parameterization schemes in the data assimilation process. Linearized
physics can also be beneficial to singular vector computations for the Ensemble
Prediction System, leading to more realistic initial perturbations. It can be useful to
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