Sustainability and policy - Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects - page 521

interact with varying positive and negative feedbacks until a new equilibrium is
reached (section 6.6.8). Again, wealthy nations can afford to adapt or relocate climate-
sensitive economic activity. This is not an option for poorer countries. For example,
near-subsistence communities in the sub-Sahara can do little in the face of dune-
stabilising vegetation dying due to climate change, and hence the consequential dune
movement and covering by sand of other vegetation.
In short, the difference in the ability of societies to adapt to climate change is both
wealth-related and likely to exacerbate wealth differences. The question of difficulty in
adapting to climate change then becomes one of managing international development.
This is an entire topic in itself, but the struggle that the global community has had in
meeting the UN's millennium goals (primarily to reduce poverty and increase human
well-being and environmental sustainability) is a testimony to how successfully it
will manage international development to reduce climate change impacts on human
well-being.
8.5.2 Futureclimatechangeandhumanhealth
As future climate change takes the planet beyond the climate regime of the Holocene
(Chapter 5) a number of regions that have been inhabited in past centuries will
experience new climate-related health impacts. Later in the 21st century, as the
global climate regime becomes one not experienced since our species evolved, these
will become more pronounced. That this will occur when the planet's population is
more than four times greater than it has been at any time since our species evolved
up to 1900 will serve to compound impacts on human well-being, and hence health.
Global warming and this human demographic maximisation are related because it
is human activity that is driving atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
beyond previous Quaternary levels (Chapter 7).
As with other aspects of climate change and human interactions, there will be
winners and losers. Again, the wealthy are likely to fare far better than the poor,
and again the disparity between the two will increase. An ironic illustration is that
of atmospheric particulates (a cause of respiratory impairment) that are commonly
associated with industrial and urban areas. In the past this association was universal
but since the late 20th century urban atmospheric particulates have declined markedly
in OECD countries. Yet atmospheric particulates have served to provide a countering
force through global dimming (Chapter 5). If they decline elsewhere as developing
countries progress with the cleaning of their industries and economies, then this brake
will be lessened and global warming enhanced. In short, one set of human health
problems will be exchanged for another.
Finally, generally speaking (and this is very generally speaking), the environment of
a warmer and wetter world will tend to favour terrestrial pathogenic microbes. How-
ever, there are still many unknowns. For example, how will domestic and urban water
use change? Will climate change and associated ecosystem changes affect microbial
mutation rates and successful speciation? How would an increase in the tempo of
extreme weather events and natural disasters affect infectious disease occurrence?
(McMichael, 2005). Combining such climate developments with the forthcoming
human demographic maximisation, and the continued post-Industrial Revolution