Sustainability and policy - Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects - page 511

Looking at energy efficiency and the prospect of low-energy strategies on an
international basis, historically the developed nations used to export their old and
inefficient power-generating plants, and technology which used that power, to less-
developed and developing nations. This is a cousin of carbon leakage, whereby
developed nations do not produce, but import, products that are likely to result in
high carbon emissions in their manufacture. For this reason the Kyoto technology-
transfer mechanisms are important to help developing nations develop more cleanly
(efficiently). Without such technology transfer developing nations, whose overriding
priority is growth, will develop in a more energy-wasteful way, so raising emissions
more than they otherwise would have from such economic growth.
It is therefore generally agreed that what are required, be it domestically or interna-
tionally, are highly energy-efficient and low-energy-consuming market controls and
standards that are monitored and enforced. Within this regulatory regime the free
market would be allowed to operate. However, as mentioned earlier in this chapter,
such measures have to go hand in hand with greenhouse-friendly energy-production
strategies.
8.4.6 Possiblefutureenergyoptionsandgreenhousegases
Given the above, and the scale of the likely future energy demand to meet an evermore
energy-intensive and growing human population, it is a virtual certainty (barring some
cataclysm) that fossil fuel consumption will continue to increase beyond present
values as we approach the middle of the 21st century (and beyond); see Figure
8.10. Carbon capture, even if the technology works on the necessary timescale, is
only applicable (as far as can be currently foreseen) to large, point-source carbon
dioxide emitters, namely carbon-fuel power stations (be they fossil or biofuel) and
carbon dioxide-emitting industries such as cement manufacturers, and here only
really effectively if they are located near, or within pipeline reach of, the appropriate
geological strata to act as a carbon store. Consequently, for the medium-term future
continuing to use fossil fuels for the most part means continuing to emit carbon
dioxide and at levels higher than at present.
Nobody can predict the future with certainty, which is why the IPCC have their vari-
ous futures from the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRESs). Not surprisingly,
given the aforementioned range of pressures for increased carbon dioxide emissions,
all the SRESs forecast increased emissions until 2050 and only a minority predicted
reductions after that. However, such is the scale of reduction needed to stabilise
climate change, let alone return the global temperature to its 1990 level, that all the
SRES forecasts result in global warming and none see carbon dioxide at less than
500 ppm through to the end of the 21st century. See how this compares with the
discussion of climate and carbon dioxide levels in the earlier section on the Kyoto
Protocol (section 8.1.8).
The alternatives to fossil fuel power - renewable energy and nuclear - are currently
more expensive than fossil fuel. Market regulation (different to that currently in place)
will therefore be required. Having said that, some countries may adopt civil nuclear
power for other (military-related) reasons. The future therefore seems to be one
of increased energy prices. Increased prices impact inherently most on the poor