Sustainability and policy - Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects - page 507

encapsulates the scale of the problem by suggesting the likely amount of new fuel
capacity required. This is not a trivial quantity.
The climate-related question here is whether fossil-related emissions can be kept at
present levels or whether new fossil consumption (without carbon capture) will take
place. When addressing such questions it is important to note that the limited ability
of trees and soils to absorb carbon (assuming that a successful global sequestration
programme is possible) can only at best (given likely boreal soil carbon release) offset
a comparatively small proportion of any extra greenhouse emissions (see Chapter 7).
Consequently, the biological implication is that we do run a considerable risk of
increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide above 420 ppm (50% above pre-industrial
levels). Indeed, unless radical action is taken we will exceed this 420 ppm limit, so
incurring consequential biological and human ecological impacts.
8.4.2 Fossilfutures
Virtually all the multinational oil companies and energy consultants forecast (as much
as anyone can forecast) that oil production outside of the 11 nations of OPEC will
peak around or before 2015: in 2004 they met 60% of international demand. After
2015 OPEC nations, especially its Middle Eastern members, will have to meet the
vast majority of international oil demand. OPEC production itself might peak as early
as 2018 or as late as 2025 (Kerr, 2005). So by 2044 the Middle East will in effect
have strategic control of the global oil supply. This brings us to considering fossil
energy considerations beyond our 2044 scenario. The one piece of good news is that
both the UN low and medium global population forecasts see the population begin
to stabilise; indeed, the low scenario sees the beginning of a decline (see Figure 7.5).
Only the UN high-population scenario sees continued growth. Conversely, other than
coal, currently economically recoverable reserves of oil and gas are likely to be largely
depleted. This means either that the price of these fuels will rise markedly in real terms
due to scarcity (as per the law of supply and demand) or the price of these fuels will
rise due to the exploitation of currently uneconomic reserves. In short, by the middle
of the 21st century it is almost certain that we will be paying significantly more in
real terms for these fuels. This will make currently uneconomical technologies such
as many types of renewable energy and nuclear power more economical, though far
more expensive in real terms than those commonly utilised today. They will also make
the use of unconventional fossil fuel resources, such as orimulsion and tar sands, more
economical (and here the greenhouse problem is that there is a sizeable reserve of
such fuels). These price rises will herald the end of the post-Industrial Revolution
era of cheap fossil energy with implications for the utilisation of non-fossil energy
resources. Importantly, though, it will not necessarily significantly impact on the
further perturbation of the carbon cycle or climate due to our past, existing and
near-future fossil carbon-related activities.
In 2005 an independently researched report was published that had been undertaken
for the US Department of Energy. The study for the report was led by Robert L. Hirsch
and so it is commonly known as the Hirsch Report (Hirsch, 2005). It noted that many
estimates for the date at which peak conventional oil production will take place are
before 2025. It also said that to most easily survive the economic disruption that