Sustainability and policy - Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects - page 495

With regards to any climate-stabilisation target, the UK view has been influenced
by EU policy. Since 1996 EU policy documents have frequently referred to a carbon
dioxide stabilisation level of around 550 ppm, which (depending on the greenhouse
gas mix) has been associated with a 2 ◦ C rise above pre-industrial temperatures,
although the EU itself has no official target. One reason for this figure is that European
crop yields are expected to begin to fall when warming reaches 2 ◦ C. More recently
evidence suggests that to ensure that the temperature does not rise above this 2 ◦ C
limit levels will need to be kept below 400 ppm. As carbon dioxide levels in 2011
were around 390 ppm and rising at about 1.5 ppm per year it is virtually certain that
the 400 ppm limit will be reached in a few years' time and, given that carbon dioxide
levels are expected to rise faster as the century progresses, the 550 ppm limit will
be reached around, or shortly after, the middle of the 21st century. The UK's current
aspirational target (an 80% cut in carbon dioxide emissions below 1990 levels by
2050) is consistent with the UK's overall contribution to global emission reductions
required for stabilisation at 550 ppm. Because curbing UK and global emissions is
proving so difficult it therefore looks as if the 2 ◦ C limit will be exceeded.
8.3.4 Casestudy:ChinaandIndia
China and India have many similarities in terms of energy and greenhouse emissions.
Further, on the spectrum of energy used by citizens, they are at the opposite end
to North America in the amount of energy that their respective citizens use, being
currently low energy per capita in contrast to North America's high energy per capita.
However, representing some 38% of the global population China and India both make
up for their low per-capita energy consumption in high capita numbers (CIA, 2008).
Further, as both are developing rapidly and so increasing their per-capita energy
consumption, these nations are likely to dominate emissions from before the middle
of the 21st century. This is especially inevitable because, in addition to their per-
capita energy consumption increasing, their respective populations are also growing.
Of the two countries, India is likely to see proportionally more population growth,
for unlike China (whose population has a comparatively low fecundity of 1.77) India
has an average of 2.76 children born per woman (CIA, 2008). This is despite China
having the larger population, with some 1.33 billion (2008 estimate), or just over 20%
of the global population, and is due to that nation having had a policy that actively
discourages parents from having a second child.
Of the two, China has the higher per-capita energy consumption: over 1 t of oil
equivalent a year in 2004 (inclusive of minority non-carbon fuels) but growing rapidly
to around 1.8 t in 2010, compared to an Indian citizen, who consumed just over a third
of a tonne of oil equivalent in 2004 but which has also increased to 0.46 t per person
in 2011 (again, inclusive of non-carbon fuels). The per-capita fossil carbon emissions
in 2002 and 2009 from energy are given in Figure 7.1. Of China's domestic energy
consumption only around 6% comes from non-fossil carbon sources. Consequently
China makes a considerable contribution to global anthropogenic carbon emissions
and as a nation is currently (2012) the largest carbon dioxide emitter, having overtaken
the USA in 2007. India and China, with some 38% of the global population, together
accounted for nearly 19% of global human carbon emissions from fossil fuels in 2004