The human ecology of climate change - Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects - page 415

concludes that all scenarios point to 'substantial increases'. The number of people in
the UK at high risk from river and coastal flooding could increase from 1.6 million in
2008 to between 2.3 and 3.6 million by the 2080s. The increase for urban flooding,
caused by short-duration events, could increase from 200 000 people today to between
700 000 and 900 000 (Foresight Programme, 2008).
In 2010, the Environment Agency (the UK governmental agency charged, among
other things, with flood defence responsibility) published a report, The Costs of the
Summer 2007 Floods in England (Environment Agency, 2010). Broad-scale estimates
made shortly after Britain's 2007 floods put the total losses at about £4 billion, of
which insurable losses were reported to be about £3 billion. The Environment Agency
study set out to produce a comprehensive monetary estimate of the total economic cost
of the 2007 events. It concluded that total economic costs of the summer 2007 floods
were around £3.2 billion in 2007 prices, within a possible range of between £2.5
and £3.8 billion. Overall, about two-thirds (£2.12 billion) of total economic costs
were incurred by households and businesses. Power and water utilities accounted
for about 10% (£0.33 billion) of total costs, and communications (including roads)
about 7% (£0.23 billion). Emergency services, involving the police, fire and rescue
services and emergency response by the Environment Agency, accounted for about
1% (£27 million) of total economic costs. Damages to agriculture, associated with
inundation of more than 40 000 ha, accounted for about 2% (£50 million). Impacts on
public health (including school education) accounted for about 9% or £287 million
(Environment Agency, 2010).
Of the damage to agriculture, the British pea ( Pisum sativum ) crop was reduced by
around a quarter and this was noticed by consumers following the harvest. The next
largest producers of peas in Western Europe were in the Benelux countries, which
were hit by the same rain systems, so affirming shortages. Consequently, in March
2008 pea prices of the cheapest brands (that do not have inherent high-branding
costs in which to absorb basic production fluctuations) were around 70% or more
than before the floods. The 2007 rains also prevented farmers spraying some crops
with anti-fungal pesticides. This affected crops of potatoes ( Solanum tuberosum ),
cabbages and broccoli (both cultivars of Brassica oleracea ).
On continental Europe the most disastrous floods in recent times took place in
August 2002 along the Elbe and Danube rivers. In the Czech Republic some 200 000
had to leave their homes whereas in Germany 3600 patients had to be moved from
hospitals threatened by waters. Rough cost estimates for the Elbe flood were US$3
billion in the Czech Republic and over $9 billion in Germany. Flood damage (which
is not the same as flooding) of this magnitude had never happened in Europe before.
There have been 10 extreme floods in Dresden, Germany, since the 13th century, with
water levels peaking between 8.2 and 8.8 m, but the 2002 flood peaked at 9.4 m.
However, the previous record flood, in 1845, had a higher flow rate than the flood in
2002. The reason why the 2002 flood was higher despite a lower flow rate was greater
river containment as a result of floodplain development. This again exemplifies how
non-climate factors can compound extreme weather events. Having said this, the rain
that caused the 2002 flood exceeded most previously measured rainfall amounts and
intensities, and in the core area of precipitation rainfall levels exceeded the 24-hour