The human ecology of climate change - Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects - page 409

Although Italy was declared free of malaria in 1970, by 2007 there was concern
that it might become re-established there. Then there is tick-borne encephalitis, only
18 cases of which had been reported in modern times before 1993. By 2007 there
had been around a hundred cases. In the UK, the Health Effects of Climate Change
in the UK 2008 report (Department of Health and the Health Protection Agency,
2008) notes that while outbreaks of malaria in the UK are, for the time being, likely
to remain rare, health authorities (the regional administrative bodies responsible for
the nation's health concerns) need to remain alert to the possibility of outbreaks of
malaria in other European countries and to the possibility that more effective vectors
(different species of mosquito) may arrive in the UK, necessitating rapid response. It
pointed out that UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) scenarios for warming in
the UK will make re-establishment of the disease more likely, especially in the south
east with risk areas including the Thames Valley, Norfolk Broads, and fenland near
Cambridge and south west of The Wash. Meanwhile tick-borne diseases are likely to
become more common in the UK, but this will more likely be due to changes in land
use and leisure activities than, in the short-to-medium term, to climate change. So,
the likelihood that tick-borne encephalitis will become established in the UK is very
low. The report also carried area of malaria suitability maps and these showed that in
North America the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys, the Rio Grande, and coastal
wetlands of Texas, Louisiana and Florida are potential risk areas by the 2080s.
In December 1997, the first workshop for international agencies was held on climate
change and human health monitoring when the UNEP, the WHO and the UK Medical
Research Council joined forces to assess the problem. This paralleled a WHO, UNEP
and WMO initiative to establish an interagency network on climate-induced health
impacts. The workshop helped set the international research agenda and allowed
agencies to pool resources to begin to tackle this issue. Worldwide health efforts to
address these diseases have increased in recent years, although a lack of resources in
many less-developed nations has hindered (and in some instances reversed) progress.
Consequently, where climate change is a significant epidemiological factor, once
again it is the wealthy countries generating the most greenhouse gases that can afford
to take remedial action, while poorer nations tend to remain exposed.
7.3.3 Floodingandhealth
Sea-level rise (see Chapter 5) and increased precipitation on a warmer planet are
likely to increase the prospect of flooding. Importantly, the volume of water that
can be held in the air increases with temperature. As this goes up so the possible
maximum precipitation (or PMP) increases. With higher PMP in a warmer world
storm bursts could become more extreme. In short, a warmer world can increase
hydrological cycling.
In itself, will this seriously impact on people's lives, their well-being and health?
A brief consideration as to how floods have affected people worldwide in the last
century gives us an indication as to their human impact in the more crowded and
flood-prone 21st century. The WHO (2001b) stated that 'almost 2 billion people -
one-third of humanity - were affected by natural disasters in the last decade of the
20th century. Floods and droughts accounted for 86% of them.' Floods are the second