The human ecology of climate change - Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects - page 386

14 000

Renewables

12 000

Nuclear

10 000

8000

Natural gas

6000

Fossil

Oil

4000

2000

Coal

0

1950 1955 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Ye a r

Fig. 7.9 Broadsummary(witha5-yearilter)ofglobalprimaryenergyproduction/consumptioninmilliontonnesofoil

equivalents(mtoes).Becauseofthe5-yeariltershortmarginaldipsinproduction/consumption(suchas
1979-82and2008-9)donotshow.SeeAppendix3forsources.

marginally compared to fossil exploitation in absolute terms. Consequently there has
been a commensurate rapid increase in carbon dioxide emissions in the latter half
of the 20th and early part of the 21st centuries compared to earlier (see Figures 7.9
and 7.10b). Note, from Figure 7.9, how fossil fuel use has changed (increased) since
the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment in 1990.
This has caused some academic commentators to say that we are not embarked on a
'business-as-usual' but 'burn baby burn' scenario (Lenton and Watson, 2011).
Reflecting the nature of human population growth (and the Ehrlich-Holdren equa-
tion, linking environmental impact to population), most of the 19th- and early 20th-
century carbon emissions were made by industrialised countries, with little from the
less-developed nations. In the 20th century the populations of the developed indus-
trialised countries had largely ceased to grow (Figure 7.10a), whereas those of the
less-developed nations grew markedly. Furthermore, as the population grew in less-
developed nations their energy usage was developing and increasing on a per-capita
basis. Figure 7.10b looks at global carbon emissions from fossil fuel in more detail
on an annual basis since the mid-20th century and shows the relentless increase of
annual global emissions.
As we shall see in the next chapter, this has coloured international policy dis-
cussions. On one hand some have argued (as did the USA around the turn of the
millennium) that, as the less-developed nations were contributing more carbon than
the developed nations, these countries needed to either demonstrate a commitment
to cutting emissions or make some other contribution to the international effort to
curbing greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand (argued at the time mainly by
the less-developed, or developing, nations) the industrialised countries need to carry
the brunt of costs for international greenhouse controls as, on a per-capita basis, each
person in an industrialised developed nation contributes far more than a person in a
less-developed nation (see Figure 7.1 and relate that to Figure 7.6). Remember that