Geoscience Reference
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(a)
9
8
7
Developing countries,
urban
Developing countries,
rural
Industrial countries
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1970
2000
2030
Ye a r
(b)
1950
2050
North America
4%
South Central and
West Asia
31%
Africa
22%
North America
7%
Africa
9%
South Central and
West Asia
21%
South-east Asia
and Oceania
8%
Europe
7%
Europe
22%
South-east Asia
and Oceania
9%
Latin America
9%
China, Japan and
other East Asia
26%
Latin America
7%
China, Japan
and other East Asia
18%
Fig. 7.6
(a)Developingandindustrialnations'contributionstoglobalpopulationgrowth(pastactualvaluesfor1970
and2000andUNmedium-scenariofutureforecastfor2030).(b)Geographicaldistributionoftheglobal
populationin1950andaspredictedfor2050.AfterRaleigh(1999).
Such individual wealth factors show up as drivers of past actual and near-future
population estimates in wealthy and poor countries (see Figure 7.6a). The traditional
view has been that poorer nations have greater fecundity in part because of higher
infant mortality and in part because children can contribute to their family income.
Conversely richer countries, with lower infant mortality and children needing expens-
ive education and/or wanting material goods such nations offer, see lower fecundity
and smaller families. This brings us to the UN's estimates of the future population of
the 21th century.
When the UN first estimated likely future population in 1980, it gave a high fig-
ure due to the particularly strong super-exponential growth seen early in the 20th
century. However, over the next three decades it reduced the size of its forecast pop-
ulation for the 21st century as super-exponential growth declined (even though the
 
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