Current warming and likely future impacts - Climate Change: Biological and Human Aspects - page 356

oils such as orimulsion, shale gas and lower-grade coal) could continue to provide
a significant proportion of civilisation's energy budget well into the 22nd century.
This may seem like a long time hence and not worth worrying about but it is not an
especially long time in geological and evolutionary terms. Most nations' capital cities
have many buildings and infrastructure that were built two or more centuries ago. In
London commuter trains use bridges built by Brunel in the 19th century, so it would
not be ridiculous - indeed it would be most prudent - to plan with this time frame in
mind at the very least, rather than the shorter-term considerations all too often seen.
Of course, encouraging policies that are likely to offset the worst effects of future
climate surprises is easier said than done. After all, by definition, surprises are
surprising. However, a clear priority to inform such policies is research into natural
processes that may become the drivers of abrupt climate change. Here special attention
needs to be given when these drivers function close to sensitive thresholds that may
become critical. So, identifying such thresholds is equally important.
To engage in a longer-term perspective the likely climatic impacts on human
society, and civilisation's probable energy requirements for the remainder of this
century, need to be assessed. This is not a straightforward task as the human ecology
of the 21st century will inevitably be as different from that of the 20th century as
that century was from the 19th. Human ecology as it relates to climate change and
greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century is outlined in the next chapter.
6.7 References
ACIA (2005) Arctic Climate Impact Assessment . Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press.
Alford, R. A. (2011) Bleak future for amphibians. Nature , 480, 461-2.
Alley, R. B., Clark, P. U., Huybrechts, P. and Joughin, I. (2005) Ice-sheet and sea-level
changes. Science , 310, 456-60.
Atkinson, A., Siegel, V., Pakhomov, E. and Rothery, P. (2004) Long-term decline in
krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean. Nature , 432, 100-3.
Baldocchi, D. (2011) The grass response. Nature , 476, 160-1.
Barber, V. A., Juday, G. P. and Finney, B. P. (2000) Reduced growth of Alaskan white
spruce in the twentieth century from temperature-induced drought stress. Nature ,
405, 668-72.
Barbraud, C. and Weimerskirch, H. (2001) Emperor penguins and climate change.
Nature , 411, 183-5.
Barnett, T. P., Adam, J. C. and Lettenmaier, D. P. (2005a) Potential impacts of a
warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature , 438,
303-9.
Barnett, T. P., Pierce, D. W., AchutaRao, K. M. et al. (2005b) Penetration of human-
induced warming into the World's oceans. Science , 309, 284-7.
Behrenfeld, M. J., O'Malley, R. T., Siegel, D. A. et al. (2006) Climate-driven trends
in contemporary ocean productivity. Nature , 444, 752-755.