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broadly show where there could be suitable climate space. Overall they forecast a
northward shift in suitable climate space for many species, some of which have the
potential to extend their range within Britain and Ireland as northern limits shift
farther than their southern limits. Fifteen species were projected to gain substantial
potential climate space, with no significant UK range loss. They were: the birds stone
curlew (
Burhinus oedicnemus
), corn bunting (
Emberiza calandra
) and turtle dove
(
Streptopelia turtur
); the butterflies pearl-bordered fritillary (
Boloria euphrosyne
),
marsh fritillary (
Euphydryas aurinia
), silverspotted skipper (
Epargyreus clarus
),
heath fritillary (
Melitaea athalia
) and Adonis blue (
Polyommatus bellargus
); the
mammals greater horseshoe bat (
Rhinolophus ferrumequinum
) and lesser horseshoe
bat (
Rhinolophus hipposideros
); the plants stinking hawk's-beard (
Crepis foetida
),
red-tipped cudweed (
Filago lutescens
), broad-leaved cudweed (
Filago pyramidata
),
red hemp-nettle (
Galeopsis angustifolia
) and small-flowered catchfly (
Silene gallica
).
Eight were projected to lose significant UK range due to climate change with no
significant gains. They were: the birds skylark (
Alauda arvensis
), common scoter
(
Melanitta nigra
), black grouse (
Tetrao tetrix
), capercaillie (
Tetrao urogallus
) and
song thrush (
Turdus philomelos
); and the plants Norwegian mugwort (
Artemisia
norvegica
), twinflower (
Linnaea borealis
) and oblong woodsia (
Woodsia ilvensis
).
Three indicated no significant gain or loss of climate space, the tree sparrow (
Passer
montanus
), linnet (
Carduelis cannabina
) and shepherd's needle (
Scandix pecten-
veneris
). Six were projected to both gain and lose potential climate space, resulting
in a northward shift. These included a beetle, the stag beetle (
Lucanus cervus
), a
mammal, the Barbastelle bat (
Barbastella barbastellus
), and the plants tower mustard
(
Arabis glabra
) and cornflower (
Centaurea cyanus
).
MONARCH outputs were valuable as broad signposts to help develop policies
for nature conservation in a changing climate. The broad adaptation measures
MONARCH III recommended conservation managers should adopt included con-
serving and restoring the existing biodiversity resource; reducing other sources of
harm such as pollution and inappropriate habitat management; and developing eco-
logically resilient landscapes through reducing habitat fragmentation.
As in the USA, the British series of climate reports tended to leapfrog each other.
This was particularly clear with the MONARCH reports as effectively this was an
evolution of specific policy concerns; those of wildlife conservation and climate
change. Understanding in both areas evolved in parallel so that any reference from
one to the other tended to become a little dated in any given report. (This is an
almost inevitable problem common to a number of areas of cutting-edge science.)
Just as the USGCRP recognises the limitations of computer models, hence the need
for their development and to use the latest available, so MONARCH used the most
recent models available in each of its successive reports. The need to do this is
aptly demonstrated when looking at the anticipated change in precipitation: as with
the USA, water issues are of concern when considering likely climate change. The
climate model used in MONARCH I suggested that by the middle of the century the
south of England (particularly the central south) would become drier in the summer
compared to the 1961-90 average, by up to 110 mm, and the north west of Scotland
slightly wetter, by 60 mm. Conversely, in winter Scotland and western England down
to and including Wales would get wetter by up to 60 mm whereas the south of England
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