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invasion, political turmoil and economic dislocation in several provinces of Gaul,
including Belgica, Germania superior and Rhaetia. Reduced climate variability from
circa
700-1000 coincides with new and sustained demographic growth in north-
west Europe, and even (as we shall shortly see) the establishment of Norse colonies in
the then not-so-cold environments of Iceland and Greenland. Humid and mild sum-
mers paralleled the rapid cultural and political growth of medieval Europe under the
Merovingian and Carolingian dynasties and their successors. Average precipitation
and temperature with fewer fluctuations during the subsequent circa
ad
1000-1200
period was also one of medieval socio-economic growth. However, this was not sus-
tained. Wetter summers during the 13th and 14th centuries and a first cold spell circa
ad
ad
1300 marked the onset of the Little Ice Age.
From all of this we can see that climate change has been a key factor in the
success (and/or failure) of early human societies. In his 2001 review paper Peter
deMonocal observes that what makes these ancient events so relevant to modern
times is that they simultaneously document both the resilience and vulnerability of
large, complex civilisations to environmental variability. Early complex societies are
neither powerless pawns nor infinitely adaptive to climate variability. As with modern
cultures, the ancients adapted to and thrived in marginal environments with large
interannual climate variability. Again, as with ancient cultures, modern civilisations
(regrettably) gauge their ability to adapt to future climate variations on the basis
of what is known from historical (oral or instrumental) records. What differentiates
these ancient cultures from our own is that they alone have witnessed the onset and
persistence of unprecedented drought that lasted from many decades to a couple of
centuries.
Added to this germane view, another point needs to be made. In the past, those
belonging to societies that became debilitated by climate events had a number of
choices. If they had the wisdom and means they might adapt. However, sometimes
this was not an option, but they still had the choice to stay where they were or migrate
(with sometimes the halfway option of raiding societies elsewhere for the resources
they needed to survive). However, today, with more than 7 billion people on the
planet, the option of wholescale population migration is not a viable one: at least not
viable without considerable social conflict.
5.2.2 TheLittleIceAge'shumanimpact
The Little Ice Age (see sections 4.6.3 and 4.6.4 on the Holocene) and the period that
led up to it has probably one of the best-recorded historical impacts of climate on
human activity. Prior to the Little Ice Age the warm MCA had enabled viticulture in
the English midlands. Since then and up to the late 20th century viticulture's main
northern boundary (other than a few pockets) was in Normandy, some 480 km to the
south. Because in Europe the human impact of this transition from medieval warmth
to the Little Ice Age is so well recorded we know what took place. It is less well
documented outside of Europe, although it is thought that possibly the decline of the
Mapungubwe state (in the current semi-arid Shashi-Limpopo basin, in the area where
the Botswanan, Zimbabwean and South African boundaries meet) may have been
a Little Ice Age impact. As noted in the previous chapter the palaeo-evidence for
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