Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
4.1
Introduction
Early warning systems (EWSs) aim to reduce a human system's vulnerability to
extreme events by increasing its preparedness . Prompt identifi cation and communi-
cation of a system's exposure to extreme events can enable timely responses.
However, exogenous exposure is only one component of a human system's vulner-
ability - or “the propensity of exposed elements such as human beings, their liveli-
hoods, and assets to suffer adverse effects when impacted by hazard events”
(Cardona et al. 2012 ). Endogenous characteristics of the system itself will also play
a role in determining how an extreme event is experienced.
Vulnerability assessments aim to identify the different elements that contribute to
a human system's vulnerability. They provide invaluable contextual information for
determining the appropriate measures that should be included in vulnerability
reduction strategies. Disaster preparedness measures are those designed specifi -
cally to minimize disaster. Examples include the provision of emergency shelters,
evacuation plans, and EWSs. However, it is also often possible to reduce vulnerabil-
ity to extreme events in general through proactive adjustments to the human system
itself. Disaster prevention refers to “(…) adjustments in the activities of vulnerable
people to maintain a resilience and self-reliance to counter the effects of disaster,
rather than only as technological resistance to the forces of disaster itself. Those
measures may therefore include, for instance, improved transportation for the distri-
bution of locally available food supplies, improved water conservation systems for
the provision of drinking water (and to counter the effects of drought), and agricul-
tural diversifi cation to ensure that not all crops suffer equally in hurricane or drought
and that some will survive to supply subsistence food supplies” (Lewis 1979 ).
While disaster prevention measures may mitigate the impacts of extreme events to
some degree, no disaster is entirely preventable. Therefore, disaster preparedness
and disaster prevention measures are both essential elements of vulnerability reduc-
tion strategies. Vulnerability assessments can help determine which interventions
are appropriate in each context.
Understanding how different elements produce vulnerability is essential in
designing a methodological framework for vulnerability assessment. The concept
that human vulnerability to natural hazards is a factor not only of exogenous expo-
sure, but also of endogenous characteristics of the system in question (be it a house-
hold, community or nation), can be traced through a rich and multi-disciplinary
body of literature on natural disasters. Section 4.2 offers a brief, and in no way
comprehensive, synopsis of this literature. It argues that evolutionary perspectives
on socio-economic change can offer important insights into human system's vulner-
ability, particularly in regard to adaptive capacity.
Similar to ecosystems and biological organisms, human systems have a capacity
to evolve to become more suited to local environmental and climatic conditions.
Through the process of adaptation, they will develop an ability to cope to some
degree with extreme events. Determining a system's adaptive capacity is critical
when assessing its vulnerability to climate change, because the most severe effects
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