The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 42

earthquakes, and landslides combined as analyzed in the GAR 2009. This fi gure
shows high multiple hazard mortality risk across Asia.
To summarize, regions at risk vary depending on how the risk is defi ned. For
example, the countries with the highest tropical cyclone mortality rates are
Bangladesh and the Philippines. When risk to tropical cyclones, however, is defi ned
by absolute economic loss, OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development) countries such as Japan and the United States are more at risk.
Conversely, when relative economic risk is considered African countries such as
Madagascar suffer the highest risk (UNISDR 2009b ).

2.4.3 Outlook

Natural hazards already place an enormous burden on economies, societies, and the
environment worldwide. With projected increases in intensity and frequency of
extreme events due to climate change as well as increasing exposure and vulnerability
of populations, impacts of natural hazards are most likely worsening (UNISDR 2012 ).
The IPCC SREX report ( 2012a ) concludes that knowledge about future changes
of extreme events should be combined with knowledge of vulnerability and expo-
sure to inform adaptation, mitigation, and disaster risk management as well as sus-
tainable development efforts. Combining these efforts can be benefi cial (IPCC
2012a ). The most recent GAR (UNISDR 2013a ) further strengthens the importance
of considering disaster risk management into business decisions. Including disaster
risk can increase business resilience, competitiveness, and sustainability (UNISDR
2013a ). The report further points out the importance of the business case for disaster
risk reduction. Focusing on managing risks as compared to managing disasters
opens up opportunities and markets for businesses (UNISDR 2013a ) .
Regarding adaptation efforts, there exists a variety of estimated adaptation costs
that would climate-proof predicted increasing disaster risks. The World Bank ( 2010 )
recently estimated a total cost of US$ 75-100 billion (in 2005 US$) annually for
adaptation for developing countries. The GAR of 2013 states that the cost estimate
for corrective disaster risk management ranges in the same numbers (UNISDR
2013a ). Adaptation cost estimates are however based on low confi dence, as there
are only a limited amount of global studies and a variety of factors and assumptions
that complicate these estimates (IPCC 2012a ). In recent UNFCC negotiations in
Cancun the developing world has then agreed to establish a Green Climate Fund,
with the goal to raise $100 billion per year by the year 2020 to help the developing
world to respond to climate change (UNFCC 2010 ). However, donor countries have
yet to make specifi c funding commitments, and the funds are anticipated to go
toward both adaptation and mitigation efforts (Donner et al. 2011 ). Nevertheless,
the GAR 2013 further points out that disaster risk management is a potential market
with great opportunities for development (UNISDR 2013a ) .
The IPCC SREX report also points out the importance and potential of EWS as
they can reduce the amount of lost lives and mitigate the economic impact and