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Shifted Mean
a
more
hot
weather
less
cold
weather
less
extreme cold
weather
more
extreme hot
weather
Increased Variability
b
more
cold
weather
more
hot
weather
more
extreme cold
weather
more
extreme hot
weather
Changed Symmetry
c
Without climate change
With climate change
near constant
cold
weather
more
hot
weather
near constant
extreme cold
weather
more
extreme hot
weather
hot
extreme hot
extreme cold
cold
Mean:
without and with weather change
Fig. 2.5
The effect of changes in temperature distribution on extremes. Different changes in tem-
perature distributions between present and future climate and their effects on extreme values of the
distributions: (
a
) effects of a simple shift of the entire distribution toward a warmer climate; (
b
)
effects of an increase in temperature variability with no shift in the mean; (
c
) effects of an altered
shape of the distribution, in this example a change in asymmetry toward the hotter part of the dis-
tribution (Reproduced from IPCC
2012b
)
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