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variations leading to the 2011 drought crisis in East Africa (Lott et al.
2013
). By
conducting event attribution, it was possible to simulate climate events during spe-
cifi c time periods (in this case short and long rain events from 2010 to 2011) and
compare the fi ndings that were produced, with or without anthropogenic infl uence.
Lott et al. (
2013
) conclude that the short rain variations were not climate change
related but that long rains failed as a result of human-caused climate change.
Uncertainties about the direct link between global warming and increased
extreme events in SSA are, at present, signifi cant. Numerous challenges to predic-
tion, including lack of technology to provide accurate forecasts and lack of both
qualitative and quantitative long term climate data, have affected research in this
fi eld. For instance, there are eight times fewer meteorological stations in SSA than
is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (Hellmuth et al.
2007
,
p. 10). Yet, despite a lack of precise knowledge about future climate risks in SSA
and more frequent extreme events, such as droughts and fl oods, it is likely that cli-
mate variability is changing and increasing (or has already increased) on the
sub-continent.
It is clear that African leaders have recognized the vulnerability of the continent
to climate-related hazards and climate change. As such, they have been at the fore-
front in the development of pre-season climate outlooks and climate outlook forum
(also known as COFs) to prepare and respond to the negative impacts of climate
hazards (Ogallo et al.
2008
). Moreover, the Greater Horn of Africa hosts a key
regional climate center: the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center
(ICPAC) located in Nairobi. This research and climate science center plays a key
role in the GHA today, training hydro-meteorologists from across the continent
(and, sometimes, from elsewhere in the world), improving the accuracy of sea-
sonal forecasts, and more importantly promoting exchange and collaboration
among hydro-meteorologists across the region. In other words, ICPAC provides
necessary technical support to the national hydro-meteorological services in the
GHA - and more precisely to the Kenyan Meteorological Department (KMD)
located in Nairobi.
19.3
Example of a Climate-Related Hazard: Floods in Kenya
Kenya has very diverse topographic features that give rise to varying microclimatic
conditions. It sits directly astride the Equator, running from 5°S to 5.5°N extending
from longitude 34°E to 42°E. It rises steadily from the coastal region of Indian
Ocean to altitudes over 5,000 m in the interior to form the highlands in the East and
West separated by the Great Rift Valley. To the West, Lake Victoria (the largest fresh
lake in Africa and the second largest in the world) has been shown to have a regional
hydro-meteorological infl uence (Nyeko-Ogiramoi et al.
2013
).
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