“Follow the Spiders”: Ecosystems as Early Warnings - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 340

That said, human pressures could soon place bioindicators at risk (PEDRR 2010 ).
With over 6,000 species listed as endangered on the IUCN Red List, some bioindi-
cators may become increasingly rare over time and therefore methodologically irrel-
evant. As well, the local nature of bioindicators may pose problems for policy-makers
who wish to invest in national early warning systems. While locally embedded
indigenous bioindicators may have social relevance, they may loose methodological
relevance, applicability, and power outside the local setting (Briggs 2005 ).
It is also clear that the biological relevance of hazard bioindicators - including
monotonicity, specifi city, and variability - needs further investigation. From the
preliminary review, it appears that some hazard bioindicators indicate areas of
heightened vulnerability (e.g., budworm infestation indicates forest vulnerability
rather than fi re), while other bioindicators are useful for actual warnings (e.g., ants
crawling up walls prior to a tropical cyclone). Responses of yet other indicators
(e.g., trees in drought) occur after the onset of the hazard.
Parallels can be drawn with the study of traditional medicinal plants. Traditional
medicine can be inexpensive and easily accessible, but its biological relevance is
often placed in doubt. Large-scale efforts are underway to identify and verify tradi-
tional medicinal plants. “Ethnopharmacology” is an approach to drug discovery that
involves the observation, description, and experimental investigation of indigenous
drugs and their biologic activities (Fabricant and Farnsworth 2001 ). Despite
advances in this fi eld, sound scientifi c data for many health products is still lacking,
and further high standard studies confi rming the safety and the effectiveness of tra-
ditional medicines are required (Verpoorte 2012 ; Chan et al. 2012 ). As Verpoorte
( 2012 ) writes, “Experimental evidence is needed and not only historical evidence of
safe use since ancient times.” There is a need to develop clear standards for studies
and build an evidence base for traditional medicine, which should be subject to
continual discussions and refi nement. According to Verpoorte ( 2012 ), this also
means that:
…we must be honest in our conclusions, one should dare to write that there is no or only
weak activity. Too many of the presently submitted papers give the impression that another
wonder drug has been found, e.g. making a ubiquitous compound like sitosterol to a real
panacea
Researchers in the fi eld of disaster reduction and climate change can draw les-
sons from the success and failures of ethnopharmacology. Efforts should be made to
standardize the study of hazard bioindicators, to ensure bioindicator assessment
procedures are in accordance with scientifi cally based protocols. Results should be
made universally accessible, ideally in one common searchable database, and
should be used to help inform environmental policy decisions. It is important to
identify areas where the science does not support traditional bioindicators, and to
avoid claims that either modern science or traditional knowledge offers a panacea
for early warning systems.
Work could begin with a global assessment of traditional knowledge and
bioindicators, from which a coordinated strategy for research and possible integra-
tion into early warning systems can be developed. Research topics should also