“Follow the Spiders”: Ecosystems as Early Warnings - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 336

from village to village and is rarely shared across all three villages (Paul and Routray
2013 ). As a result, integration or use of indigenous knowledge in national early
warning systems would be both costly and challenging. Furthermore, fi ndings need
to be confi rmed through triangulation. Reliability and validity of such variables have
not been examined. Finally, some of the animal reactions listed below may not be
unique to hurricanes or cyclones and therefore lack specifi city as bioindicators.

Examples of Traditional Cyclone Bioindicators in Bangladesh

Source: Paul and Routray ( 2013 )

Abnormal animal behavior
Ants climb toward the roof of the house
Cattle and dogs howl endlessly at night before a strong cyclone
Sea birds, pigeons, move toward inland
Crabs come into courtyards or high places
Bees/locusts move in clusters in the sky
Flies bite cattle to take shelter

18.4 Indigenous Knowledge and Hazard Bioindicators

Indigenous knowledge - often referred to as local knowledge, traditional knowl-
edge, or folk wisdom - is considered to be a body of knowledge existing within or
acquired by local people over a period of time through accumulation of experiences,
society-nature relationships, community practices and institutions, and through
generations (Mercer et al. 2009 ). As indicated by the discussion of tropical cyclones,
there is signifi cant indigenous knowledge relevant to disaster reduction. Theoretically
this could be applied to early warning systems. As a pastoralist in Ethiopia once
said, “We have a drought early warning system: First the sheep die, then the cows
die, then the camels die” (Glantz, pers. comments).
Many indigenous communities use environmental indicators for early prediction
of disasters (PEDRR 2010 ). Heavy rains, fl oods, droughts, and pest infestations can
be predicted from plant fl owering or growth, animal behavior, and the nesting of
birds (PEDRR 2010 ). The Lepcha people in Sikkim, India, predict weather events
and disasters from animal behavior (Jha and Jha 2011 ). According to their folklore,
if birds are silent it will rain; if bears and wolves are seen there will be famine. In
other parts of India, the fl owering of tress is used to predict the monsoon (see
Table 18.2 ). The Wasangu, of the Usangu Plains in Tanzania, also base predictions
of rain on tree phenology (Kangalawe et al. 2011 ). If the Mipalma trees produce
insuffi cient fruits, the following season will have little rain. If too many fruits are