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year; uncertainties are inevitable and sometimes very high, making it diffi cult for
disaster managers to commit resources, and diffi cult to communicate forecasts in
a way that triggers appropriate and timely action; relief operations are primarily
funded by voluntary contributions but these are rarely prompted by pre-emptive
early warning systems, but rather by news of the impacts once a disaster is well
under way. Decadal forecasts are likely to face similar barriers, potentially com-
pounded by greater uncertainties than on seasonal timescales. Building a decadal
early warning system that communicates the forecast appropriately without raising
unrealistic expectations and exploits skill that is, in some cases, modest will be a
challenge.
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