Introduction - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 13

Chapter 18 reviews whether or not biological indicators, often used by communi-
ties to forecast weather events, can be integrated into early warning systems. It has
been argued that rates of change in ecosystems, or changes in ecological time series
data, can provide warning of impending collapse (Guttal and Jayaprakash 2008 ).
For example, the spatial variance of eutrophic water regions in a lake increases as it
approaches a eutrophic state. Biological indicators such as animal behavior or
changes in phonology could theoretically be used to help forecast hazards. According
to the IPCC ( 2012 ) such, “Ecosystem-based solutions in the context of changing
climate risks can offer 'triple-win' solutions, as they can provide cost-effective risk
reduction, support biodiversity conservation, and enable improvements in economic
livelihoods and human well-being, particularly to the poor and vulnerable.” The
Climate Change Adaptation in Africa project has successfully integrated both tradi-
tional and scientifi c approaches to weather forecasting, resulting in more accurate
forecasts and greater community acceptance (Bailey 2013 ). It is unclear, however,
whether bioindicators provide suffi cient warning time to take proactive measures.
There is a need for a global effort to identify and validate bioindicators for hazards,
and also examine the impact of climate change on species and ecosystems used as
indicators. Indeed, calls have also been made to establish an early warning systems
for vulnerable ecosystems, such as high altitude or polar regions.
Finally, Chap. 19 explores major fl ooding events in Kenya and the impact of
fl oods on vulnerable communities. The authors highlight challenges to early warning
systems in developing countries. They offer a way forward by emphasizing the
importance of participatory rural appraisals, community-level alert and preparedness
groups, and support for local development. They shed light on innovative techno-
logical solutions related to crowd sourcing and social media, currently used in Kenya
in social and political spheres. Technology can advance early warning systems by
revolutionizing participation in monitoring and reporting.

1.8 Reducing Disasters?

Around the world, an increasing number of groups are working to improve early
warning systems: international agencies such as the World Meteorological
Organization, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, the
United Nations Development Programme, the United Nations Environment
Programme, the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, national mete-
orological agencies, national environment ministries, charities such as Save the
Children and World Vision. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network, the
Humanitarian Early Warning Service, Regional Climate Outlook Forums and others
issue warnings and seasonal outlooks. There is a proliferation of both actors and
interest in this area. Why, then, do losses from hazards continue to occur? As a
participant in the 2013 Horn of Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum asked,
“With all this information, why are we still ever stuck in the rut, suffering the con-
sequences and vagaries of weather?”