Decadal Warning Systems - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 297

Fig. 16.1 Climate model projections of changes in extremes. Changes in spatial patterns of simu-
lated precipitation intensity ( left ) and dry days ( right ) between two 20-year means (2080-2099
minus 1980-1999) for the A1B scenario. Stippling denotes areas where at least fi ve of the nine
models concur in determining that the change is statistically signifi cant (Adapted from IPCC 2007 ,
Fig. 10.18)
Box 16.1 External Forcing of Climate
The climate system consists of four elements: the atmosphere, oceans, land
and cryosphere (land ice and sea ice). Changes in climate that are imposed
upon, rather than integral to, these elements are referred to as “externally
forced”. External forcing may arise naturally or through human activities.
Examples of natural external forcing include changes in solar activity
and volcanic eruptions which inject aerosol particles into the atmosphere;
(continued)