Introduction - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 11

is a deceptively simple one: disasters are gendered in every aspect, including
impacts of the disaster itself and impacts of the social disruption that follows, post-
event recovery and reconstruction, policy formulations, and 'lessons learned'.”
Women typically suffer higher rates of mortality during disasters. In the 1991 fl oods
in Bangladesh, fi ve times more women died then men. Causes of such difference
remain under debate, but it is clear that women are often more likely to be vulner-
able - living below the poverty line, lacking strength or the ability to swim, and
dependent on public transportation to escape from an area.
Such failures and challenges in early warning system development raise a vari-
ety of ethical questions. Do we have a responsibly to protect the vulnerable from
climate-related hazards? If this responsibility is not met, who should be held
accountable? In Chap. 15 , Kerry Bowman, Jeffrey Rice, and Allan Warner discuss
ethical obligations pertinent to early warning systems. “Populations have the right
to information that may potentially save their lives and if we, the developed world,
have access to information then we are morally obligated to make that information
available,” they write. Ethical imperatives for preserving, protecting, and promoting
life, and preventing damage, depletion, or destruction of human or nonhuman life
and infrastructure should drive us toward greater acceptance, development, and
fi nancial investment in early warning systems. Principles such as prevention of
harm have been used with great effect in patient-based medicine and public health.
Unfortunately, in relation to environmental issues, similar philosophical principles
have received spotty support and engendered a great deal of suspicion and political
division. This needs to change.

1.7 The Future

Chapters 16 17 , 18 , and 19 focus on aspects of early warning systems that are cur-
rently changing and on future areas for development. In recent years, rapid advances
have improved forecasts and increased the timescale of prediction. A well-developed
industry now produces forecasts along the 6-month to 1-year timescale. Such sea-
sonal forecasts are beginning to be used for disaster planning. For example, the
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used sea-
sonal forecasts to take action prior to the 2013 fl oods that affected Burkina Faso,
Gambia, Mali, Niger, and Senegal. “Based on predictions of severe rainfall in West
Africa, we were able to pre-position stock emergency relief items in most of the
countries,” said the Disaster Response Manager at the IFRC in Dakar. “This has
allowed us to provide immediate assistance to people” (IFRC 2013b ).
Multiyear forecasts would theoretically enable governments to make long-term
development plans. According to the IPCC ( 2012 ), “Developing resiliency to
weather and climate involves developing resiliency to its variability on a continuum
of timescales, and in an ideal world early warnings would be available across this
continuum.” In Chap. 16 , Doug Smith assesses on the rapidly evolving fi eld of
decadal climate prediction. Factors such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) and Sea Surface Temperatures fl uctuate in a long-term way. Predicting