The Ethics of Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 288

Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, there is a high dependence on agriculture. Higher
temperatures, more variable rainfall and extreme climate events such as heat waves,
fl oods and droughts are likely to impact these communities signifi cantly. A lower
crop yield in communities already facing signifi cant adversity would make agricul-
tural practices all the more challenging, if not outright impossible (The World Bank
2010 ). In some instances, agricultural yields are expected to be compromised by as
much as 50 % due to a severely shortened growing season. Fisheries are also likely
to be impacted from increased water temperatures (Harris 2009 , p. 22).
In many of these drought-affected regions, there have been attempts to adapt and
mitigate the effects of climate change and to reduce the amount of crop lost in a
given harvest. These attempts have included the creation of drought-resistant maize;
Rwanda's Land Husbandry, Water Harvesting and Hillside Irrigation Project which
seeks to better manage rainfall and minimize hillside erosion, through terracing; or
reforestation projects such as in the small agricultural town of Humbo near the
Ethiopia's Great Rift Valley (The World Bank 2010 ). Other approaches have gone
further and implemented weather management and social protection strategies,
which include EWS. Often natural disasters such as drought and fl oods can obliter-
ate a season's harvest, having a signifi cant impact on food security.
In 2004, a National (Ethiopian) Food Security Programme (NFSP) was imple-
mented that takes into account risk factors for vulnerable populations. Its main
goals are to prevent long-term consequences of short-term food inaccessibility,
encourage households to engage in production and investment and promote market
development. As part of the NFSP, the Ethiopian government established a
Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP), which aims to protect chronically food-
insecure populations from hunger and poverty, by providing more sustainable forms
of social protection rather than relying on recurrent emergency assistance. A key
feature of PSNP is the Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection project
(LEAP) framework, developed in conjunction with the World Bank and the
Government of Ethiopia (WFP 2013 ). Meteorological information is gathered from
satellites as well as automated weather stations to make early warning predictions.
As of 2011, improved availability of this data was under way with 20 automated
weather stations being installed in food insecure pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of
Ethiopia. It is an innovative and clear example of the utility of EWS - an early
action tool that supports human and environmental well-being when a serious
drought or fl ood is predicted. The programme gives advanced food security early
warning, activates contingency plans and triggers contingent fi nance before a crisis
arises, therefore enabling the capacity to reduce a signifi cant amount of harm. For
example, when this programme was put into action in 2011 amidst a predicted
drought and possible crisis in the highlands of Ethiopia, this programme was able to
respond to vulnerable populations through fi nancing, planning with signifi cant
institutional capacity to meet the transitory food needs of millions of people
(Humanitarian Practice Network 2012 ). While the results described PSNP as an
effective instrument that enabled early and preventive intervention before a shock
became a crisis, one of the criticisms was that LEAP - its early warning system -
was not as strong as it needed to be.