Introduction - Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change - page 9

warning efforts or communicating early warning alerts across national boundaries
remains a challenge.
Floods also require regional approaches to early warning system design, as
rainfall in one part of a river basin can lead to fl ooding downstream. Chapters 9
and 10 provide two different examples of fl ood early warning systems, from dif-
ferent parts of the world. Both offer similar lessons. In Chap. 9 , S.H.M.
Fakhruddin describes progress toward 1-10-day fl ood forecasting in Bangladesh.
Due to Bangladesh's fl at topography, one-fi fth to one-third of the country is often
fl ooded during the monsoon. England also faces fl ood risks and damage, with
losses from fl ooding approaching US$1.2 billion in 2012. In Chap. 10 , Janak
Pathak and Richard Eastaff describe the fl ood forecasting system developed by
the UK Environment Agency. Both chapters illustrate that improvements in fl ood
forecasting can help save lives and property, but they also highlight the complex
institutional collaboration needed to develop effective warning systems. Detailed
assessments of community needs - including forecast lead time and methods of
warning dissemination - are critical. “The community wants accurate and timely
messages which must address public concerns, contain what people want to
know, give guidance on how to respond, and use examples, stories and analogies
to make the point,” Fakhruddin writes.
Chapter 11 provides insight into institutional process of developing early warn-
ing systems. James Oduor, Jeremy Swift, and Izzy Birch describe the steps through
which Kenya developed an early warning system for drought, run today by the
National Drought Management Authority (NDMA). Drought response has evolved
over time, with input from a range of experts. Institutional memory is critical to
ensure learning from past early warning successes and failures. Long-term commit-
ment from funders is also vital, along with some degree of institutional autonomy.
This can be achieved from having specialized, permanent agencies dedicated to
early warning. The authors note that, “Before the early warning system was in place,
there was considerable political intervention in the allocation of emergency aid….
A strong and credible early warning system can reduce political infl uence and
ensure that decisions are taken on the basis of objective evidence.” They also empha-
size that it is critical for early warnings to result in rapid response - without the
latter, the former has little purpose. The NDMA thus tries to run a “Drought
Management System” not just an “Early Warning System,” which includes activi-
ties to support livelihoods and reduce poverty, enabling household response.

1.6 Gaps and Weaknesses

Methods of communicating warnings and consequent public response are weak
components in many warning systems (Penning-Rowsell and Green 2000 ).
Information dissemination varies from country to country and between warning
systems themselves. It is clear that multiple methods of communication are often
needed to ensure warnings reach communities, but the public may not trust all